Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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Perfect storm for 2019 recession

“The perfect storm” has become a cliché, but the current setup for a 2019 recession has become so text-book perfect in alignment of the three most critical recessionary forces that I have to use it. Let me start by noting that a stock market that rallies because the news is bad — as happened a little over […]

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Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

Posted June 12, 2019 By David Haggith
By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

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Breaking China Not as Easy as Toppling Tijuana

Posted June 11, 2019 By David Haggith

A bump from Donald Trump’s thump on Mexico’s head is causing the US stock market to swell this week. Trump tariffied the market last week because his new threat against all things Mexican seemed to say Trump might use tariffs as leverage to get anything he wants. Agent Orange apparently got what he wanted — […]

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Latest Premium Post Now Up on Patreon

Posted June 6, 2019 By David Haggith

I just posted my latest Premium Post on Patreon.com. Patrons can read it on my Patreon page if they are a supporter at the $5 per month level or higher. As soon as your payment processes at the start of each month, you will be given access to any Premium Posts that come out that […]

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There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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These Three Major Stock Bear Markets are Still Roaring

Posted May 31, 2019 By David Haggith
[CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

The 2018-2019 stock bear market is still roaring among several major indices. It has broken all the market’s FAANGs and still shows no signs of backing off.

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Carmageddon Keeps Rolling Along

Posted May 27, 2019 By David Haggith
Carmageddon keeps on rolling

“‘Everything Is Under Scrutiny: 38,000 Layoffs Across Auto Industry May Only Be The Beginning“ Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said: “The industry is right now staring down the barrel of what we think is going to be a significant downturn. If you’ve been reading here regularly, you’ve been seeing “Carmageddon” coming for […]

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You Know Things are Falling When…

Posted May 25, 2019 By David Haggith
Decade-long trend of S&P for its bottoms becomes trend for it stops and then nothing.

…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.

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The graph here shows the point at which I said early last summer housing sales had turned over (for the worst) and would remain on a downtrend indefinitely, and it shows how that prediction has panned out. Existing home sales were down again nationally (4.4%) in April (fourteenth month in a row of declining sales […]

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A Crash Course on the Everything Crash that is Coming

Posted May 20, 2019 By David Haggith

A crash course by Jeffry Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth on the cognitive dissonance in economic thinking, the fact-free euphoria in the stock market, bonds busting out toward a breaking point, the falsehood in GDP versus real GDP, and the guaranteed crash trajectory of the US national debt — all the same stuff I’ve been […]

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Stocks posted their fourth straight weekly loss across all three headline indices this week, but more important than that they proved convincingly on Friday that the market is as fully intoxicated as I claimed in my recent article, “Hopium Floats.” The path of indices through the day looked like a side-on view of the flight […]

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The Fed's great recovery rewind is rapidly depleting the very bank reserves the were built up to protect from bank runs like those in the Great Depression.

In my January Premium Post, “An Interesting Interest Conundrum,” I laid out how the Federal Reserve was losing control over the Fed funds rate — a loss of control over its bedrock interest rate that indicates financial stresses are building in the banking system that increase the risks from runs on the banks:

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stock market roller coaster sets up 2019 recession

So much for the trade war being “good and easy to win.” Let’s be honest. Trump has been grinding away on it for almost a year now, and China has barely flinched in its negotiations. On Friday the tariff war became personal because it will now tap your own budget and every business budget in […]

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