One of my readers, Peter Wang, was interested in publishing a few book reviews. This particular book tells you how to invest in bonds. While I’m not making any recommendation for or against bonds, I’ve written a lot about bonds in the last week, and that may have gotten some readers wondering how to actually […]

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Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction not happening yet even as the Fed applauds its own success

In a surprisingly candid admission, two former Federal Reserve chairs have stated that the Federal Reserve alone is responsible for creating all recessions in the United States. First, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said that Expansions don’t die of old age. They get murdered. MarketWatch To clarify this statement, former Chair Janet Yellen placed the […]

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BOND PRIMER: Does Inverted Yield Curve Indicate Recession?

Posted January 15, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

This brief post presents simple historic proof that inverted yield curves predict recessions. I am posting it in anticipation of an article this week in which the Federal Reserve surprisingly admits it is solely responsible for creating recessions. Does an inverted yield curves predict a recession? An inverted yield curve has happened shortly before every US […]

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Second Libert Loan Bond Ad

This is a simplified explanation of a few often confusing bond terms, explaining bond yield, bond interest and bond price and briefly discussing how bonds and other US treasuries are traded. I am posting it in anticipation of an article this week in which the Fed surprisingly admits it is solely responsible for creating recessions. […]

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Groesbeck, Dan Sayre, 1878-1950, artist; McAdoo, W. G. (William Gibbs), 1863-1941. [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

This is a simple explanation of an inverted yield curve along with a few basic definitions of US treasury securities — bills, notes and bonds. I am posting it in anticipation of an article this week in which the Fed surprisingly admits it is solely responsible for creating recessions. It is for the sake of […]

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First Premium Post Available

Posted January 8, 2019 By David Haggith

My first Premium Post, “2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century,” lays out a broad overview of the forces that I am certain will prevail against the economy this year. It should give subscribed readers a solid feel for what’s coming at us. It’s not an article of predictions so much as an […]

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There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Compare the Market Tops

Posted January 2, 2019 By David Haggith

A picture is worth a thousand words. Just saying. Can you even see the bottom from there? That’s all. Oh, and you can find more market-shattering charts here to back that one up: https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/02/shattered-trends/

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Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog of happiness, can do better prognostication for you than Dennis Gartman. Like Gartman, he’s a friendly little guy, and he even looks like he could be family. However, Phil won’t be on duty for you until February. So, as I work on my first real article for the year, I thought […]

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A Little Life’s Tale

Posted December 31, 2018 By David Haggith
David-Haggith-Image

Just a quick end-of-year tale here about my end-of-career journey. I mentioned it a little long ago. As it makes sense out of the fundraising drive, I thought I’d say a little more about it today. In short, I drive a school bus for a living. It was not originally my chosen career path but […]

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The Roar of Stupidity is Now Deafening

Posted December 30, 2018 By David Haggith
Celebrate because the Epocalypse is here!

The world is descending into intellectual chaos. Read El Erian in the following linked article, and then come and back tell me we have not moved into madness: El-Erian: 1000-Point Swings In The Dow Are The “New Reality” There is clearly a tooth missing on one of the gears in El-Erian’s brain. How do you […]

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The market’s last chaotic day closed in a way that befit the entire year. Up, down, up harder, down harder, and done! It looked like the violence of the day may have come from the Plunge Protection Team attempting to push the market up in the middle of the afternoon, except that the middle of […]

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Is it the Fed or is it the Trump? Here’s the Truth.

Posted December 28, 2018 By David Haggith

President Trump wants to blame the Fed — Jerome Powell in particular — for the stock market’s nasty action this fall. If things keep going this badly, you can be sure the Fed chief will want to blame Trump and his treasurer Munchkin for recent tweets that killed Santa Claus and for trade wars and […]

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Beware the Bear’s Bull Traps!

Posted December 26, 2018 By David Haggith
HM Stoops? (the name signed to 2 of the 6 illustrations on the page of the newspaper—they all seem to be from the same hand, despite this particular image is unsigned) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

So, the bull market bounced back, right? Not so fast. When one appreciated reader suggested there would be a huge plunge the day after Christmas, given how badly the market plummeted the day before Christmas, I cautioned against that tempting thought. Herein are some warnings about bull traps in a bear market and how they […]

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