A Crash Course on the Everything Crash that is Coming

Posted May 20, 2019 By David Haggith

A crash course by Jeffry Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth on the cognitive dissonance in economic thinking, the fact-free euphoria in the stock market, bonds busting out toward a breaking point, the falsehood in GDP versus real GDP, and the guaranteed crash trajectory of the US national debt — all the same stuff I’ve been […]

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Stocks posted their fourth straight weekly loss across all three headline indices this week, but more important than that they proved convincingly on Friday that the market is as fully intoxicated as I claimed in my recent article, “Hopium Floats.” The path of indices through the day looked like a side-on view of the flight […]

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The Fed's great recovery rewind is rapidly depleting the very bank reserves the were built up to protect from bank runs like those in the Great Depression.

In my January Premium Post, “An Interesting Interest Conundrum,” I laid out how the Federal Reserve was losing control over the Fed funds rate — a loss of control over its bedrock interest rate that indicates financial stresses are building in the banking system that increase the risks from runs on the banks:

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So much for the trade war being “good and easy to win.” Let’s be honest. Trump has been grinding away on it for almost a year now, and China has barely flinched in its negotiations. On Friday the tariff war became personal because it will now tap your own budget and every business budget in […]

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Zombie economists create US 20116 recession

The highest summit of irrational exuberance ever, which is not even seen by those engaging in it, establishes the perfect peak for the greatest global economic collapse ever. Some days the level of denial in the stock market twists my head into a knot — not because I am surprised at lemmings jumping over a cliff […]

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US GDP Not All it was Cracked up to be

Posted April 28, 2019 By David Haggith
How's that swamp drainage project going?

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

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3M Crash May be the Shape of Things to Come

Posted April 25, 2019 By David Haggith

Shares of 3M Co. plummeted toward its biggest one-day decline in over 30 years, after the industrial, health-care and consumer products company reported missed profit and revenue expectations, slashed its full-year outlook, and said it was cutting 2,000 jobs…. The percentage decline was second only to the 26% plunge on Oct. 19, 1987. That is […]

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List of 24 Points Pressing Hard toward Recession

Posted April 19, 2019 By David Haggith

The US stock market is slightly overbought (which is not a positive in terms of head room for more of a rally). It’s massively built up on debt that is now more expensive to maintain and/or obtain. The Fed is still rapidly tightening money supply and says it will continue to do so for several […]

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Yes, this is as far as they got, as far as true normalization ever will go. Central banks are more done than you might imagine they would ever admit! Yet, admit they do … in a major way. Powell gave big hints in his latest speech of what the “new normal” will have to be. […]

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Protected: Teasing out the Fed’s Big Plan for our Future

Posted April 12, 2019 By David Haggith
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

Posted April 5, 2019 By David Haggith
2019 recession coming - dust bowl photo

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

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One Big Tip for Huge Economic Growth

Posted April 3, 2019 By David Haggith

The Fed’s surprise pivot away from any interest rate increases this year has boosted prices of stocks, high yield bonds and other risky assets in spite of nagging investor concerns about slowing global economic growth….. The quandary for the Fed is that easy monetary policy seems more effective in spurring asset values than it does in boosting […]

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The Two Stooges of Finance: Larry and Moore

Posted April 1, 2019 By David Haggith
Larry Kudlow by Gage Skidmore [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Laughable Larry Kudlow, as high priest of the Laffer Curve, has long been servant of “King Dollar,” as Larry has often reverently referred to US currency. The Laffer Curve is the central creed of trickle-down economics. It’s a bell-curve that demonstrates how lowering tax rates actually increases tax revenue to a certain point by stimulating […]

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By 95 b-body ss [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

For brick and mortar stores, the Retail Apocalypse is closing stores down like a slow-motion video of the asteroid event that took out dinosaurs 66 million years ago. While it may seem to drag on as we watch various species of retail collapse, I originally said this event would take, at least, three years (through […]

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