Well, that didn’t take long! Four days ago, I stated the following in an article titled “Why are Bonds Going for Broke?“: Central banks are losing control, and are admitting they don’t even understand what is happening.
[This article attempts to provide an understanding of how the Fed governs interest rates (particularly via repos). If you understand it already, skip it; if you don’t, you may need it to understand the next article.] The Federal Reserve’s primary Machinery — the overnight interest rates between banks — broke down this past week. That […]
One argument for last week’s extraordinary plunge in bond prices, which I explored as something that might happen this time of year in one of my earlier Premium Posts, was that bond prices could get crushed by the supersized US treasury auctions planned for September and October as the government makes up for its inability […]
![Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons](http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/Jerome-Powell-150x133.jpg)
Two weeks ago a former Federal Reserve board member and bank president, William Dudley, wrote an editorial that encouraged the Fed use its powers to defeat Donald Trump’s second bid for the US presidency. I don’t recall choosing presidents as being listed in the Fed’s two mandates — controlling inflation while maximizing employment. For an […]
It’s out of control. And I’m not even talking about the stock market, which fell off a cliff. I’m talking about the president who has deified himself. I hesitate to write strongly against Trump because I understand why many readers here voted for him, but today is a day that shall live in insanity!
Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.
Let me help remove the rose-colored glasses for anyone who still thinks GDP this year is good. First, GDP growth in the first quarter was not “great” as I’ve heard some claiming. It was, by US historical standards, a little lower than mediocre. Second, the biggest tax cuts in history only got us down to […]
Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]
![HM Stoops? (the name signed to 2 of the 6 illustrations on the page of the newspaper—they all seem to be from the same hand, despite this particular image is unsigned) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons](http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/Bull_and_Bear_Fight_1-126x150.jpg)
Oh my gosh, what a load of BULL I keep reading among the gurus who whine about negative headlines and complain that this unmerited negativity is the only thing that is killing the bull market. Bull. The bellowing bulls cry every time someone runs a negative headline, “Stop, you’re breaking our bull market with your […]
The following is my recent argument with yet one more market analyst who can’t see straight, even when his article overall was admitting it was time to bail out of stocks. Correcting the market mantras that dominate the bullheaded is partly why I am here.
On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]
I’ve just posted my latest Premium Post on Patreon. It’s about the world-sized peculiarities that are showing up in the bond market as well as the conjuncture of ill-opposed events happening this coming week in the US treasury bond market. The distortions I see in the surface of the bond bubble (Let’s just call it […]
![By Marcosleal (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons](http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/BalloonAndStorm-150x100.jpg)
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
One thing I never posted and should have when I’ve stated that the stock market did take its second major leg down in the “early summer” of 2018, as I had predicted, was this graph of the FAANG stocks. The index shown here should be considered a major stock index in one all-important sense: The […]
