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Economic Predictions Archive

Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Has Begun

Posted July 18, 2018 By David Haggith

A summer storm is gathering against the housing market all across the US. More than a year ago, I predicted the collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0 and then predicted as soon as the housing market collapse had begun that it would see temporary reprieve until the summer of 2018. Well, that reprieve has ended … 

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Major Stock Trouble in One Chart

Posted July 3, 2018 By David Haggith
Dow falls below 200-day moving average

While I don’t make my predictions based on charts, many who make investment choices do make their decisions based on technical lines of convergence in the charts and have for decades. One of the most persuasive and bearish technicals is when an index that has been running above its 200-day moving average first closes below […]

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2017 Economic Forecast is looking like the mother of all storms

First I said I believed the US stock market would plunge in January, but I also said that January would not be the biggest drop, but just the first plunge that begins a global economic collapse: the big trouble for the economy and the stock market, I said, would show up in “early summer.” That’s when the […]

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Signs of a housing collapse in 2018

It’s simple math — an equal and opposite reaction. After a long spell of QE took mortgage interest down to the lowest it has ever been, a long spell of QT (quantitative tightening) is going to take it back up again. That’s why I forecasted another housing collapse with confidence last year: Rising mortgage rates will […]

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The Global Economic Tide is Quickly Receding

Posted May 19, 2018 By David Haggith
By Pipe310593 [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

The global economy is now stranded as the central-bank tide runs out. By the end of this year, the collective monetary inflow from all the central banks of the world, which rose to a high-water mark of $2-trillion per year, will have ebbed to zero. After that, it runs net negative for years to come. […]

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Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed […]

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Is the US economy collapsing into the Epocalypse that I predicted would start to show up as large cracks in the economy last summer? The initial damage that I forecast for last summer was in auto sales, housing sales, and the ruin of retail stores and shopping malls along with their satellite restaurants. These initial breakups, […]

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It took sixteen months to build the exceptionally steep Trump Rally, and just one week to eliminate a quarter of it. While I wouldn’t call that jolting reversal a stock-market crash in the ordinary sense, the largest one-day point fall in the history of the market (by far) certainly marks a massive change in market conditions. […]

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I’m pretty sure the nation’s favorite groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, knows more about the weather than he does about markets, and I’m not all that sure he knows anything about the weather! In fact, I don’t understand the underground methods of this rodent resident of Gobbler’s Knob at all. It would seem to me that sighting […]

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How and Why My 2018 Economic Predictions Could be Way off

Posted January 27, 2018 By David Haggith
By H. Zell (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

My 2018 economic predictions in my last article laid out how I believe the stock market’s (and general economy’s) natural collapse will time out if no surprise event (black swan) knocks the wind out of it before it fails due to its own diminishing monetary lift from the Trump Tax Cuts. These predictions are based […]

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2018 economic predictions

My 2018 economic predictions follow through on the accurate predictions I made in 2017. In my last article, I stated that I had bet my blog the stock market would crash by January 2018. That was my thinking back then based on where Obama had been taking us. In fact, however, when I went back […]

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It’s not boasting to state plainly that you were right if you are equally direct about your errors. I have until now rightly predicted all of the stock market’s major downturns, starting with the one in 2007 that gave us the Great Recession. The first of those led to the writing of this blog. The […]

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Stock and Awe, Bears in Bondage

Posted November 6, 2017 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

The Trump Rally pushed ahead relentlessly through a summer full of high omens and great disasters, all which it swatted off like flies. Even so, all was not perfect in the market as nerves began to jitter midsummer beneath the surface even among the most longtime bulls. Wall Street’s fear gauge (the CBOE Volatility Index) lifted […]

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Signs of a housing collapse in 2018

In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that […]

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