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Economic Predictions Archive

The Recession Called “Repocalypse”

Posted February 11, 2020 By David Haggith
John Robert Charlton [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

There is, at least, one highly recognized economist who agrees with me that a recession started forming in the summer of 2019 and is still emerging, in spite of the Fed’s strongest efforts to stop it — David Rosenberg: We recall all too well the euphoria that followed the early 2001 and late 2007 Fed […]

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Sizing up the 2017-2020 Housing Cliff Hanger

Posted February 8, 2020 By David Haggith
A housing market crash in 2018 is where we start 2019

The best time to size up the collapse in housing that I called almost two years ago will be when it is over — so we can visualize its full extent. Since it is now over by some measures, though not by others, this might be as good as we get for awhile as a […]

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GDP is In, and Recession is Out … or is it?

Posted February 3, 2020 By David Haggith

Having predicted last year that a recession would begin in the summer of 2019 and that it would likely start with a major repo crisis, I am now proven wrong by 2019’s fourth-quarter GDP. If the repo crisis that started in the final week of summer had actually been the start of a recession, we […]

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Gathering around the stock ticker during the 1929 stock market crash.

I’m not going to predict when and how the US stock market will crash as I did by laying out the stages of its fall for 2018. That was easy, but the times are different now. Back then, the Fed had laid out a precise schedule for its tightening, and it was apparent to me […]

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Since hindsight is 2020, I thought it might be useful now that we are far past the time in 2018 when I called the fall of the US housing market to assess where its journey went during the year and a half that has gone by before I venture a housing market prediction for 2020.

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Dr. Fed Frankenstein Kept Alive by Zombies

Posted December 27, 2019 By David Haggith
Zombie economists create US 20116 recession

Did you know Dr. Frankenstein created a monster that stays alive to this day by eating zombies? Neither did the zombies. Neither, apparently, did Dr. Frankenstein. In fact, the zombies, being braindead as zombies are, do not realize that they are also keeping alive the diabolical doctor who made the monster that is eating them.

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Repocalypse: The Second Coming

Posted December 23, 2019 By David Haggith
John Robert Charlton [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

This little monster that feeds beneath the surface of global banking at its core briefly raised one ugly eye out of the water as 2018 turned into 2019. I wrote back then that the interest spike we saw in the kind of overnight interbank lending known as repurchase agreements (repos) was just the foreshock of […]

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A Love Letter to my Crow about my 2019 Predictions

Posted November 15, 2019 By David Haggith
By Randy Robertson [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Not-so-TruBlu97 was doing some of his typical cawing and provided the incentive for me, as we near the end of the year, to review the predictions I made for 2019, the most important one of which was locked within a Patron Post.

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The Relentless Road to Recession

Posted October 5, 2019 By David Haggith

“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.

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The Great Recession never ended. I say that because the deep economic flaws that caused it were never corrected. All recovery efforts since merely clouded our eyes to the problems growing larger around us, even making them worse, and now we are going back into the belly of the Great Recession.

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Bubble Bubba Isn’t Doing Fine Anymore

Posted August 14, 2019 By David Haggith

Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]

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And That’s How it All Came Down

Posted August 6, 2019 By David Haggith
Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]

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Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

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Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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