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Economic Predictions Archive

Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

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Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

Posted June 12, 2019 By David Haggith
By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

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You Know Things are Falling When…

Posted May 25, 2019 By David Haggith
Decade-long trend of S&P for its bottoms becomes trend for it stops and then nothing.

…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.

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Protected: Teasing out the Fed’s Big Plan for our Future

Posted April 12, 2019 By David Haggith
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.

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Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

Posted April 5, 2019 By David Haggith
2019 recession coming - dust bowl photo

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

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Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]

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US Budget Deficit and Interest Take Trip to the Moon

Posted March 6, 2019 By David Haggith
NASA [Public domain]

In my first Premium Post back in January, “2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century,” I laid out sixteen major headwinds that would be howling against the economy this year. One of those was the government debt, which I said was about to skyrocket: If you thought the government deficit exploded last year […]

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More Evidence that the Bears Have it Dead Right

Posted February 25, 2019 By David Haggith

In my last article, “The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions,” I laid out my first prediction for 2019 — a recession by summer. I don’t want the following revelations and facts that I have since come across to get lost in comments I recently posted to that article, so […]

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Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said bears would starve because 2018 was going to be the year of “global synchronize growth.” We bears bawled that this was euphoric nonsense. Global economies fell off a cliff […]

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Fed Med is Dead: How We Went from Fake Recovery to Freefall

Posted December 26, 2018 By David Haggith
Francisco Goya y Lucientes [CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Until you got to this tax and spending deal a year ago, it was one of the most hated bull markets. The markets steadily climbed one wall of worry after another, and the problem was that the economic data did not confirm it. –Bloomberg That’s right. The market was not rising for the past ten […]

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Stock Market Hangs on Edge of Very Big Cliff

Posted December 17, 2018 By David Haggith

It’s downright wintry on Wall Street right now. Firmly establishing the worst start of a December for the US stock market in 38 years, all three major stock indices plumbed the greatest depths they have hit all year … and it’s been a bad year! The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at 2,546 and […]

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Stock Market’s Stars are Crossed for an Ursa Major Upset

Posted December 16, 2018 By David Haggith
The bear is back

The Big Bear is back. Ursa Major is in the house of the rising sun, and Taurus is in the house of the setting sun. Those are bad signs for investors who are now daily diving into their horoscopes. The market is pouring out of an inverted Big Dipper, otherwise known as the Big Bear […]

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