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Economic Predictions Archive

The Global Economic Tide is Quickly Receding

Posted May 19, 2018 By David Haggith
By Pipe310593 [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

The global economy is now stranded as the central-bank tide runs out. By the end of this year, the collective monetary inflow from all the central banks of the world, which rose to a high-water mark of $2-trillion per year, will have ebbed to zero. After that, it runs net negative for years to come. […]

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Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed […]

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Is the US economy collapsing into the Epocalypse that I predicted would start to show up as large cracks in the economy last summer? The initial damage that I forecast for last summer was in auto sales, housing sales, and the ruin of retail stores and shopping malls along with their satellite restaurants. These initial breakups, […]

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It took sixteen months to build the exceptionally steep Trump Rally, and just one week to eliminate a quarter of it. While I wouldn’t call that jolting reversal a stock-market crash in the ordinary sense, the largest one-day point fall in the history of the market (by far) certainly marks a massive change in market conditions. […]

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I’m pretty sure the nation’s favorite groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, knows more about the weather than he does about markets, and I’m not all that sure he knows anything about the weather! In fact, I don’t understand the underground methods of this rodent resident of Gobbler’s Knob at all. It would seem to me that sighting […]

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How and Why My 2018 Economic Predictions Could be Way off

Posted January 27, 2018 By David Haggith
By H. Zell (Own work) [GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html) or CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

My 2018 economic predictions in my last article laid out how I believe the stock market’s (and general economy’s) natural collapse will time out if no surprise event (black swan) knocks the wind out of it before it fails due to its own diminishing monetary lift from the Trump Tax Cuts. These predictions are based […]

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2018 economic predictions

My 2018 economic predictions follow through on the accurate predictions I made in 2017. In my last article, I stated that I had bet my blog the stock market would crash by January 2018. That was my thinking back then based on where Obama had been taking us. In fact, however, when I went back […]

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It’s not boasting to state plainly that you were right if you are equally direct about your errors. I have until now rightly predicted all of the stock market’s major downturns, starting with the one in 2007 that gave us the Great Recession. The first of those led to the writing of this blog. The […]

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Stock and Awe, Bears in Bondage

Posted November 6, 2017 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

The Trump Rally pushed ahead relentlessly through a summer full of high omens and great disasters, all which it swatted off like flies. Even so, all was not perfect in the market as nerves began to jitter midsummer beneath the surface even among the most longtime bulls. Wall Street’s fear gauge (the CBOE Volatility Index) lifted […]

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A global 2017 housing bubble may be ready to collapse.

In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that […]

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2017 Economic Forecast is looking like the mother of all storms

Summer closed in a whirlwind of weather chaos for the United States and its territories. At the start of the summer, the US economy began to show signs that it was flying apart. The two most obvious were the big blowouts in the auto industry and in retail

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Team Trump Transmogrifies into the Swamp Thing

Posted August 26, 2017 By David Haggith

The establishment has eaten the White House, and yet I continue to read supporters of President Trump who desperately hold to the delusion that Trump  is playing a game of 4-D chess — a game so advanced that no one else on the face of the earth can understand that Trump is winning. Trump’s masterful […]

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A decade chart of Dow crashes

I’ll let the chart speak for itself. During the first part of the chart, I did all my writing in newspaper articles, so you won’t find support here on this blog or those early years. I began the blog in 2012. The rest is history. As for the Trump Rally at the end, I didn’t […]

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Retail Apocalypse Engulfs US Economy

Posted June 18, 2017 By David Haggith
Will a 2016 US recession be the next big one?

You may not see it yet, but the scale of the retail apocalypse is so massive that it is about to engulf the US economy. As when a flood tide has crept around you on all sides while you were standing on a high spot out on the flats, not paying attention, you can look […]

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