Let’s look at some simple facts about how much improvement Obamanomics has given us in the job market after five years. The number of Americans who are capable of work but have chosen not to work has risen from 80,507,000 to 90,609,000, the first time it has ever topped ninety million. Ten million more people […]
Economic Predictions Archive
The air-raid sirens are silent, but it doesn’t mean the bomb is not falling. The question to be answered is not whether the Federal Reserve is creating the possibility of runaway inflation, but “can the Fed dismantle the hyperinflation bomb that is already falling before it hits the earth?” No one — even at the […]
It’s time for the mid-year audit of my 2013 economic predictions. I learned from last year and throttled back a little this year. While luminaries like Marc Faber predicted a great economic collapse in 2013, I decided the government has a lot of energy to keep powering through a bad plan. It would be almost […]
As I consider my 2013 Economic Predictions, I have to take a lesson from my “Economic Predictions for 2012.” I was right in all the trends, because economic fundamentals drive the trends, but I was wrong in not seeing how denial of economic reality could maintain itself longer than I thought, slowing the speed and […]
2012 brought a change to global stock markets we have never witnessed. The unprecedented money-mongering of central banks has caused stock exchanges to completely unhitch themselves from economic reality. Markets now react inversely to their economies, a situation that begs for a devastating stock market crash. The great stock market bubble of the Great Recession […]
It’s time to assess my own 2012 economic predictions. In looking honestly at the shortcomings in my predictions, I see something interesting. The picture of events formed a ghost image to my own forecast. It shaped up weaker than I had predicted, and yet has taken the exact form I envisioned, albeit in paler colors […]
This week’s collection of economic news articles strongly reinforces my predictions earlier in the year that Iran will not back down from its nuclear program and that an Iran war will play a significant economic role in 2012 (with both the economic impacts of rising oil costs and the cost of war being added to […]
Will an Iran war with Israel and/or America happen in 2012 before the U.S. presidential elections or after? When will Israel attack Iran? What is the key factor that could change Obama’s timing that no one is thinking about … except maybe Obama.
It’s time to assess how well I’ve done (or not done) during 2012 in making economic predictions. As these prognostications have been scattered over various posts, I’ll gather all of them here in one place and dig into them with straightforward honesty.
The Eurozone crisis calmed a little now that the European summit has agreed on a plan, but for how many days, and what about Greece? The agreement reached in Brussels raised stock markets around the world but only because the deal exceeded expectations, and that’s only because expecations were already priced into the market and […]
The euro crisis dominated economic news and set the stage for the summer I have been anticipating. Stocks fell; unemployment climbed; sales dragged; manufacturing sluffed off; consumer spending receded. Interest on the U.S. debt also ticked upward when the annual deficit soared over the trillion-dollar barrier for the fourth straight year. And that was just one week! […]
At the beginning of last week a big financial advisor proclaimed that the markets’ little downturn meant nothing. The market would go right back up. He was certain that Europe’s problems that week would quickly be yesterday’s worries. He gets paid too much to be that certain about that much and be that wrong. I […]
Some people predict the economy is going down in order to sell gold. I call them the “gold bears.” Others make economic predictions as a way of guiding people in their stock or bond investments. They are the golden calves of the Wall Street bull. I have completely different agenda than either. The gold bears […]
A year ago, the news was full of articles about China trying to slow down its growth to align its speed with that of the rest of the world and to keep inflation in check. Now, everywhere in the press you read concerns about China’s slowdown. How fickle can the press and market investors be? […]