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Economic Predictions Archive

Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said bears would starve because 2018 was going to be the year of “global synchronize growth.” We bears bawled that this was euphoric nonsense. Global economies fell off a cliff […]

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Fed Med is Dead: How We Went from Fake Recovery to Freefall

Posted December 26, 2018 By David Haggith
Francisco Goya y Lucientes [CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Until you got to this tax and spending deal a year ago, it was one of the most hated bull markets. The markets steadily climbed one wall of worry after another, and the problem was that the economic data did not confirm it. –Bloomberg That’s right. The market was not rising for the past ten […]

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Stock Market Hangs on Edge of Very Big Cliff

Posted December 17, 2018 By David Haggith

It’s downright wintry on Wall Street right now. Firmly establishing the worst start of a December for the US stock market in 38 years, all three major stock indices plumbed the greatest depths they have hit all year … and it’s been a bad year! The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at 2,546 and […]

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Stock Market’s Stars are Crossed for an Ursa Major Upset

Posted December 16, 2018 By David Haggith
The bear is back

The Big Bear is back. Ursa Major is in the house of the rising sun, and Taurus is in the house of the setting sun. Those are bad signs for investors who are now daily diving into their horoscopes. The market is pouring out of an inverted Big Dipper, otherwise known as the Big Bear […]

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Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Has Begun

Posted July 18, 2018 By David Haggith
Perfect storm for 2019 recession

A summer storm is gathering against the housing market all across the US. More than a year ago, I predicted the collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0 and then predicted as soon as the housing market collapse had begun that it would see temporary reprieve until the summer of 2018. Well, that reprieve has ended … 

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Major Stock Trouble in One Chart

Posted July 3, 2018 By David Haggith
Dow falls below 200-day moving average

While I don’t make my predictions based on charts, many who make investment choices do make their decisions based on technical lines of convergence in the charts and have for decades. One of the most persuasive and bearish technicals is when an index that has been running above its 200-day moving average first closes below […]

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2017 Economic Forecast is looking like the mother of all storms

First I said I believed the US stock market would plunge in January, but I also said that January would not be the biggest drop, but just the first plunge that begins a global economic collapse: the big trouble for the economy and the stock market, I said, would show up in “early summer.” That’s when the […]

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A housing market crash in 2018 is where we start 2019

It’s simple math — an equal and opposite reaction. After a long spell of QE took mortgage interest down to the lowest it has ever been, a long spell of QT (quantitative tightening) is going to take it back up again. That’s why I forecasted another housing collapse with confidence last year: Rising mortgage rates will […]

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The Global Economic Tide is Quickly Receding

Posted May 19, 2018 By David Haggith
By Pipe310593 [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

The global economy is now stranded as the central-bank tide runs out. By the end of this year, the collective monetary inflow from all the central banks of the world, which rose to a high-water mark of $2-trillion per year, will have ebbed to zero. After that, it runs net negative for years to come. […]

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Carmageddon keeps on rolling

Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed […]

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Is the US economy collapsing into the Epocalypse that I predicted would start to show up as large cracks in the economy last summer? The initial damage that I forecast for last summer was in auto sales, housing sales, and the ruin of retail stores and shopping malls along with their satellite restaurants. These initial breakups, […]

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The 2018-2-19 Housing Market Crash 2.0 is just getting started.

It took sixteen months to build the exceptionally steep Trump Rally, and just one week to eliminate a quarter of it. While I wouldn’t call that jolting reversal a stock-market crash in the ordinary sense, the largest one-day point fall in the history of the market (by far) certainly marks a massive change in market conditions. […]

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I’m pretty sure the nation’s favorite groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, knows more about the weather than he does about markets, and I’m not all that sure he knows anything about the weather! In fact, I don’t understand the underground methods of this rodent resident of Gobbler’s Knob at all. It would seem to me that sighting […]

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