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The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions

Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said bears would starve because 2018 was going to be the year of “global synchronize growth.” We bears bawled that this was euphoric nonsense. Global economies fell off a cliff […]

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Housing Market Crash 2.0: The Jury is in for 2018-2019

As happened with the first housing market crash that began in 2007 but didn’t become widely recognized until mid-2008, the present housing crisis began exploding one story at a time last summer, and this blog was perhaps the first to state that summer’s change was the turning point from decades of ascent into a collapse […]

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The Great Recovery Rewind: How the Federal Reserve’s Balance-Sheet Unwind is Unwinding Recovery

We are in the end time of an unprecedented era of financial expansion — the greatest expansion of the world’s money supply ever attempted, expansion of the Federal Reserve’s vast and unchecked powers far beyond what the Fed could do before the financial crisis, and super-sizing expansion of banks that were already way too big […]

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Protected: 2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Fed Med is Dead: How We Went from Fake Recovery to Freefall

Until you got to this tax and spending deal a year ago, it was one of the most hated bull markets. The markets steadily climbed one wall of worry after another, and the problem was that the economic data did not confirm it. –Bloomberg That’s right. The market was not rising for the past ten […]

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Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is it the Fed? Is it the President? Is it the Treasurer?

Make no mistake about it, there’s real fear and panic out there as markets are dislocating to the downside…. But note that on many charts we are showing 2008/2009 like conditions, something that is entirely inconsistent with the earnings and economic data we’re still seeing: It’s almost as if markets are pricing in a financial […]

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Trump’s Mobsters in the White House Deflect Blame for Falling Market

Before Trump was even inaugurated, I said he was clearly draining the swamp directly into the White House. That was obvious as soon as he nominated a Goldman-Sachs roster to fill all the financial cabinet positions. Some wishfully said he was playing 4-D chess by keeping his enemies close. I called baloney. He was simply […]

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Stock Market Hangs on Edge of Very Big Cliff

It’s downright wintry on Wall Street right now. Firmly establishing the worst start of a December for the US stock market in 38 years, all three major stock indices plumbed the greatest depths they have hit all year … and it’s been a bad year! The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at 2,546 and […]

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Stock Market’s Stars are Crossed for an Ursa Major Upset

The Big Bear is back. Ursa Major is in the house of the rising sun, and Taurus is in the house of the setting sun. Those are bad signs for investors who are now daily diving into their horoscopes. The market is pouring out of an inverted Big Dipper, otherwise known as the Big Bear […]

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The End is Here. I Bet My Blog and Lost and Won

I bet my blog on a stock market crash in the early summer and on global economic cracks large enough by summer that no one could reasonably deny the economy is in a serious downturn. I have both lost and won that bet as I will lay out here.

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Icarus Flies, but FAANGs Fall from the Gaping Maw of US Stock Market – And My Blog is Still Here

As we pass from early summer into late summer today, stocks on all the major indices open the day on the slide. The “Tech Wreck,” as it is being called, has been noted by many, as I’ll detail here. That is in spite of the fact that the last of the great FAANGS just reported […]

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Death of the Great Recovery Part 3: Housing Collapse 2.0 Has Begun

It’s simple math — an equal and opposite reaction. After a long spell of QE took mortgage interest down to the lowest it has ever been, a long spell of QT (quantitative tightening) is going to take it back up again. That’s why I forecasted another housing collapse with confidence last year: Rising mortgage rates will […]

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Death of the Great Recovery Part 2: The Second Coming of Carmageddon

Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed […]

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The Dumb Money is Helping the Smart Money Exit the Stock Market

Bloomberg this week ran a story telling us how the smart money gets out of the stock market when it hits its all-time peak and how the dumb money helps the smart money out. Only they didn’t know that was what they were writing. It typically happens this way:

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