The Great Recession Blog

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did the best he could with the limited options the Fed has created for itself, and he said nothing unexpected. The Fed will continue its course at a slower rate of interest rate increases but raise interest to a higher level than it has thought it would have to all year […]

It’s important to say when you were wrong, especially if you are prone to point out when you were right. Otherwise, you are just boasting in vain conceit. If you point it out both ways, you are just being factual.

I’m going to write today’s article with all the vicissitudes I experienced as I read Powell’s statements about the Fed’s predicted moves and watched the market’s responses as they played out. My first thought, as I read the headline about Powell stating outright that the time was coming when the Fed would have to slow […]

Now that the Dow finished its best October ever, it is more than clear my anticipation of an October surprise that would deliver a “horrendous” stock plunge couldn’t have been more wrong. That was an October surprise on me. It was not, however, a large one, as I didn’t have a lot of conviction when […]

Last Sunday, I wrote about the big swings in the stock market that had just happened as follows: I’m anticipating this coming week will be horrendous. That kind of extreme bouncing is nothing but the rapids right before the lip of the waterfall.… I think that is what this is — extreme chop like the […]

From the intro to my last Patron Post: Thursday morning CPI, again, proved what has become my standing narrative for two years — that hot inflation would force the Fed to tighten faster and [thus] would kill the economy, the bond market and stocks â€” when all of the following headlines hit on a single morning (as […]

In this week’s podcast, Tom Pochari asked me what I believe is the ultimate destiny of humans and human civilization on this sometimes seemingly Godforsaken earth … so I told him: Bottleneck Animal (Top of left column at time of posting, October 12, 2022.)

The Dow plunged 686 points midday on Thursday and closed down 458, wiping out a large relief rally from the day before, and it went down for the key reason I laid out for understanding why the Fed will over-tighten and drive the economy into an extremely deep recession. A batch of economic data that […]

Today the market paid back some of its delusional holdings. It has a lot more left to pay back. You see, the market believed the Fed all of last year when the Fed said inflation was transitory. Or, at least, market leaders sold the Fed’s narrative, accelerating us into a heck of wreck.

Writing is a tough balancing act, especially when you know a fair number of people in your regular audience are not likely to like what you write. That is made even more precarious in a world so far off balance that it is now dividing like an amoeba into Left and Right halves and cracking […]

To many economists, saying we are going into an economic crash would be a prediction because over eighty percent of economists do not believe we are even in a recession right now, much less a total economic collapse. To me, on the other hand, saying we’re entering an economic collapse is not a prediction at […]

At the start of the year he said we were entering the “strongest economy” he had ever seen. Then he said he saw storm clouds. Then he said his storm-cloud forecast might have been underestimating the calamity coming upon us because we were likely facing an economic “hurricane.” Now we’re back to “storm clouds” and […]