The Great Recession Blog

Is the Federal Reserve’s Great Unwind already coming unwound? I thought it would be good to check up on Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction since the Fed is supposed to be up and running on the move out of quantitative easing this month. It should be fascinating to see what progress the Fed is making […]

The Federal Reserve is telegraphing that it is going to begin its great unwind in September. It’s going to untie its own not untiable knot. In case you cannot untie what I just said, that’s a knot that cannot be untied. I’m writing the article to ask you to ponder this conundrum with me.

One of the kookiest moments last month came when Fed Chairwoman Yellen spoke about seeing no financial collapse in sight during our lifetimes   “Would I say there will never ever be another financial crisis? No. Probably that would be going a little too far, but I do think that we’re much safer, and I […]

If I can show you that economists, central bankers and stock analysts are blind in the area of their expertise to the most obvious setup for disaster ever, then you’ll realize we are perfectly poised for potentially the greatest stock market crash in history. Many times in the past few months, I’ve heard these people say that the […]

Many of the 2017 economic headwinds I’ve described will hit during the Ides of March, just as the Trump stock-market rally shows signs of topping out. This might not be the Great Epocalypse — not all at once anyway — but a large and likely correction is looming. I think the bear is about to be let out of his cage.

The financial end of the world in economic apocalypse is here. A funny thing happened on the road to recovery: Trump’s chief strategist admitted his view of the Trumpian future looks like the Great Depression. Even the world’s largest bank just said global financial default is the preferable way out and most likely way out of the Great Recession […]

Melt-ups precede a major stock market crash, and by all appearances we may be in a melt-up right now that could cause a stock market crash in 2016. First, a small bit of euphoria kicked up permabull adrenaline in the US market when Brexit didn’t make the American sky fall overnight. At the same time, central banks scurried to buy stocks all over the […]

Many nations that experimented with the Fed’s economic recovery plan are now going beyond the outer limits into the twilight zone of negative interest rates. Some of these nations continued to skirt in and out of the edge of recession throughout their years of economic stimulus; so, now they’ve powered their programs into hyperdrive to see if they can escape […]

Only a couple of weeks ago, I said we were entering the jaws of the Epocalypse. Now we are sliding rapidly down the great beast’s throat toward its cavernous belly. The biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen is consuming everything — all commodities, all industries, all national economies, all monetary systems, and eventually all peace and […]

The one prediction I’ve made over the past years on this blog that came the closest to looking wrong has taken some time to gain perspective on. When I predicted the stock market would crash in the fall of 2014, it did take a big plunge, but it immediately spiked back up, so I couldn’t exactly call […]

Bubble, bubble, we’ve got trouble. China’s market turned to rubble. Wonder, wonder who comes next? Burst your bubble; read this text.   U.S. stock market’s hot-air balloon ride has already ended   With China’s bubble burst, you might want to re-examine the U.S. stock market if you have ever enjoined the illusion that the market’s growth […]

There is one reason I’m posting again on my blog and that is that the Federal Reserve lied. The long-promised end of quantitative easing by the Fed last fall never happened, and, strangely, no one has called the Fed on that. I cry foul.   It was the end of quantitative easing in 2014 … not! […]

Was the recovery of the stock market rigged? David Stockton, President Reagan’s Director of the Office of Management and Budget, says it was:   The markets plunged on a vague recognition that the central bank promoted recovery story might not be on the level. But that tremor didn’t last long. Right on cue the next day, one of the very dimmest Fed heads — James […]

When you look at numerous key sectors of the economy, they hang together like the bones of a rickety skeleton. Here is a list in bullet points of some economic bones to pick over. When viewed altogether, they indicate the next dip of the Great Recession is likely near and severe:   “There are more obvious light switches today or […]