The Great Recession Blog

From the intro to my last Patron Post: Thursday morning CPI, again, proved what has become my standing narrative for two years — that hot inflation would force the Fed to tighten faster and [thus] would kill the economy, the bond market and stocks â€” when all of the following headlines hit on a single morning (as […]

We are breathing a lot easier, how about you? We had been worrying that a devastating recession would plunge the US into  chaos… losses… and confusion… giving the Fed the smokescreen to go back to what it does best – causing inflation… and dooming Joe Biden and his fellow democrats to a single 4-year spell […]

Thursday morning CPI, again, proved what has become my standing narrative for two years — that hot inflation would force the Fed to tighten faster and harder and would kill the economy, the bond market and stocks — when all of the following headlines hit on a single morning (as collected on The Daily Doom): […]

Here is my recent interview with Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio. I think it gives the broadest and easiest-to-understand overview of how the Federal Reserve has delivered us into a catastrophic situation for which the Fed truly has no answers that will do anything, except make everything worse: (In summary: The coronacrisis brought massive […]

The stock market is smart in a dumb way, but it is currently unbelievably dumb in the way that it is smart. To understand that, you have to realize that today’s stock market is not a place for investing in businesses. It used to be that, but the players have all turned it into a […]

“When the [credit] delusion breaks, people all with one impulse hoard their money, banks all with one impulse hoard credit, and debt becomes debt again, as it always was.  Credit is ruined.” – Garet Garrett, 1932, A Bubble that Broke the World

The Dow plunged 686 points midday on Thursday and closed down 458, wiping out a large relief rally from the day before, and it went down for the key reason I laid out for understanding why the Fed will over-tighten and drive the economy into an extremely deep recession. A batch of economic data that […]

“The LORD sends poverty and wealth; he humbles and he exalts.”– 1 Samuel 2:7 An enterprising entrepreneur did a comedic graphic of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell captioned: “IN JPOW WE TRUST.” You may have seen it.…

Monday’s financial news was filled with fantasies about how Tuesday’s CPI report would be as boring for the stock market as watching the paint dry on Fed QT, but all that falderal didn’t even age one day without putrefying to a level of rancidness that would curl the nose hairs of most investors by Tuesday […]

Stocks soared, treasuries fell, and the message from Team Fed was “full speed ahead with tightening.” Where did all of Wednesday’s market lunacy come from? We leaped from “Bad news is good news” straight to “Bad news is AMAZING!” Every Fedhead who spoke in Wednesday’s planned lineup made it clear the Fed is dead-reckoning its […]

Bear-market rallies are always built on delusions. A breath of hope returns to the dying bulls, and all the testosterone and adrenaline rushes to their veins. There is typically no rationality to it. It is pure sentiment, so the rallies are strong, unthinking, and vicious toward anyone who shorted the market, making shorting a dangerous […]

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, set last week off with a fitting sour note when it was reported across the financial news, he had updated his weather report for the economy: I said there were storm clouds. But I’m going to change it. It’s a hurricane. Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are […]