The Great Recession Blog

I try to point out risks I believe most people do not want to see or cannot see because they don’t fit the norm by which people construct their perception of reality. I am accustomed, therefore, to being scoffed at because I am out of step with the thinking of the time, and the majority […]

In the first half of 2021, I bet my blog that the inflation I had been predicting would rise so hot through the year for so long that it would kill the stock market bull. It’s time to call the bet.

The Everything Bubble is bursting, and the Fed has barely even begun its war on inflation. Many top stocks are already in their own bear markets. Nvidia, way off its game, has lost 25% of its value from its last high score. The ridiculously skyrocketing Tesla has plunged back toward earth’s gravity on a trajectory […]

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. –Mark Twain Do you ever see graphs like this one and wonder why the unemployment rate has almost completely normalized since the start of the COVID pandemic crash; and, yet, employers everywhere are griping that they cannot find enough help, and articles everywhere are reporting numerous supply shortages, […]

One or two dimwits told me I was stupid to be thinking inflation would be the driving force of 2021 due to shortages and Fed money printing. The cockiest one even assured me his second-grade education in economics said inflation wasn’t even happening, yet inflation has relentlessly surged higher every month to finally now hit […]

When The Great Recession Blog was conceived back in early 2011, I wrote the following statement to my friend Stan who was thinking about developing a website of his own, which became the core theme for this site: I think focusing on the economy from the perspective of economic sustainability might be better. I don’t know if […]

Whenever I predict the market is going to crash or (as I recently have) that inflation is going to soar and then it does as I predicted, I get naysayers who claim — with no research to know what they are talking about — that I’m just a broken clock who happens to be right […]

I’ve said inflation will rise much higher than the Fed believes and will persist much longer and that it will eventually kill the latest stock market bull and the economy. If these inflation predictions prove wrong, I’ll stop writing my blog. Simple as that. That is how firmly I believe what I am saying and […]

In my last article, I broke apart the arguments that are popularly used against my prediction that inflation will spiral up hotter than the Fed thinks and last longer. In this article, I lay out arguments that are being raised by others and myself for why inflation will run hotter, reaching higher for longer.

This past week we saw the Fed make a significant change in its predictions about inflation, raising the rate it thinks we will have averaged at the end of a year by another one percent. That means, quite simply, the Fed was wrong about how high inflation would go up to the last meeting, and […]

Let’s look at what has continued to develop with inflation in the short time since my May articles on the subject because inflation is going to cause the Fed’s “Great Recovery” but burn up in its own incendiary blast. A rapid spread of fiery inflationary data lit up the landscape last week:

The most interesting thing about what the Fed is now doing is that it is illegal. The Fed’s argument that it is not monetizing the US debt fails now on its own terms. The Fed is buying treasuries for no purpose other than to directly finance the government’s escalating debt. Here’s the deal: