Protected: The Great Yield Curve Control Conundrum

Posted July 3, 2020 By David Haggith

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

Bloomberg reported this week that thirteen US companies (in the 50-million-plus size) filed for bankruptcy last week. That brought the total for the big boys and girls this year to 117, which matches the record peak for the first half of a year set in 2009. The slew of bankruptcies also set a record in […]

Photo of a car used as a tent to demonstrate depth of Great Depression in these economic predictions.

The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

Zero Hedge Confirms Fed is Dead

Posted June 21, 2020 By David Haggith

It is always good to have a statement from the coroner when pronouncing death as I did on May 19, 2020. That is when I gave time of death and pronounced “The Fed is Dead.” You especially want the second opinion when you’re talking about Feddie Krueger, who has more extra lives than a cat […]

Mike Pompeo used the Department of State’s website to officially call out President Trump’s former National Security Advisor John Bolton as a liar and a traitor. In a brief press statement titled “I was in the room, too,” Pompeo stated emphatically, I’ve not read [Bolton’s] book, but from the excerpts I’ve seen published, John Bolton is […]

Zach Catanzareti Photo / CC BY (

Robinhood retail investors believed the fairy tale of a V-shaped recovery, but Father Fed just told them that will never happen. Robinhood even had Goldman Sachs whining about its hedge fund basket not keeping up. Hope of a V-shaped recovery due to COVID-19 helped Robinhood take from Goldman’s sacks of gold, but failure of that […]

To “V” or Not to “V”? That is the question.

Posted June 18, 2020 By David Haggith
Farmer in despair over Great Depression in 1932.

Whether it is more likely for the economy to recover in a V-shaped pattern or not, the stock market did. Now it is struggling everyday to hold the pattern as it keeps trying to refasten on news of a V-shaped recovery but gets beaten down by news of COVID-19 threatening the recovery:

When asked by the press if the Fed was concerned about how it has increased wealth disparity in the US with its policies, Papa Powell kept clearing his throat and parading his lamest thoughts. “Inequality is not related to monetary policy,” he claimed in the Fed’s defense. Powell did not answer the question directly but […]

Jerome Powell burst the stock market bubble by publicly acknowledging there will not likely be a “V”-shaped economic recovery. He indicated that it will take years for the economy to return to the recent levels … we experienced just a mere four months ago. —Seeking Alpha

Stupid is as Stupid Does!

Posted June 12, 2020 By David Haggith

There is no easy way to say it, except to get it out of the way. My stock trade that I divulged as a matter of disclosure at the start of the week was probably the stupidest move I’ve made since starting this blog. I failed to follow my own advice.

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

I Believe in the Stupidity of the Stock Market

Posted June 8, 2020 By David Haggith

I believe in it in the sense that I believe it will stupidly become even stupider for a short time. So, I’m putting money back into stocks in order to bet on stupid, not because I believe in a phantom V-shaped recovery, but because I constantly hear plenty of people do believe in the “V.”

June 19, 1970: a member of the Black Panther Party holding a banner for the Revolutionary People's Constitutional Convention in front of the Lincoln Memorial. | Source: SHalloran, Thomas J., photographer.; Leffler, Warren K., photographer. For US News and World Report. / Public domain

As US troops surround the Lincoln Memorial to protect it from vandals, one is reminded of the Civil War, over which this guarded stone president once presided. Those desecrating US memorials to leaders who helped Blacks in American society may be nothing more than rioting opportunists during the George Floyd protests. They may have nothing […]