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Protected: The Great Inflationary Train Wreck is Here

Posted July 19, 2021 By David Haggith
By Photo credited to the firm Levy & fils by this site. (It is credited to a photographer "Kuhn" by another publisher [1].) (the source was not disclosed by its uploader.) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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When asked about where inflation is now and how it relates to how high the Fed thought inflation would reach and what the Fed’s targets for inflation really are, Powell made it clear that inflation is running much hotter than the Fed thought it would be and for longer: This is not moderately above 2% […]

Jan van Rooyen, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

As I promised in my last article, I’ll now lay out where inflation has gone since my June update. Because so much inflation has emerged in the last few weeks, I can hardly keep up with the number of ways in which it is soaring and the reasons it will be more persistent than the […]

Treasury employee moves wheelbarrow full of money, destined for destruction. (National Photo Company Collection, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

I’ve said inflation will rise much higher than the Fed believes and will persist much longer and that it will eventually kill the latest stock market bull and the economy. If these inflation predictions prove wrong, I’ll stop writing my blog. Simple as that. That is how firmly I believe what I am saying and […]

Bond Baloney Everywhere! Let me help you digest it.

Posted July 9, 2021 By David Haggith

The bond market is crazy weird right now. Inflation is soaring, and bond yields, which are supposed to price in inflation, are falling through the floor, causing many experts to scratch their heads as they try to figure out what on earth to make of it all:

While the Fed’s current tightening is not exactly a well-kept secret, stock and bond markets seem willing to ignore what the Fed’s left hand is taking away as the right hand is giving. Reverse repurchase agreements, which I have been tracking here, have exploded to a trillion dollars in money that the Fed is sucking […]

Katelynn & Jordan Hewlett, AP, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

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Burning hundred-dollar bill

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Fed Falters, Stocks Stumble, Bonds Bounce

Posted June 16, 2021 By David Haggith
Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

The Fed candidly admitted today’s soaring inflation is not what it had in mind, though it certainly is exactly what I’ve had in mind: At a news conference after the Fed’s statment [sic.] was released, Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects that inflation will be short-lived but acknowledged that it has run hotter than the […]

Economists — including those at the Fed — were surprised by inflation again. With their consensus view being that inflation for June would print at about a 4.7% increase year-on-year, inflation barreled in at 5%. That took us back to the kind of inflation we saw in 2009 when the economy and stocks were falling […]

By Tech. Sgt. David McLeod (Defenseimagery.mil, VIRIN DF-ST-92-09166) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Let’s look at what has continued to develop with inflation in the short time since my May articles on the subject because inflation is going to cause the Fed’s “Great Recovery” but burn up in its own incendiary blast. A rapid spread of fiery inflationary data lit up the landscape last week:

Fed Falls for its Own Inflation Fakery

Posted June 4, 2021 By David Haggith

The S&P 500 failed a breakthrough on Thursday and tucked its head back below its 4200 ceiling again, where it has remained rangebound for weeks. Job news on the economic front that many analysts toasted as great could not lift sentiment out of the doldrums on Thursday, nor could it stop Netflix from making its […]

Protected: Is the Housing Market about to Top Out?

Posted May 31, 2021 By David Haggith
A housing market crash in 2018 is where we start 2019

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The most interesting thing about what the Fed is now doing is that it is illegal. The Fed’s argument that it is not monetizing the US debt fails now on its own terms. The Fed is buying treasuries for no purpose other than to directly finance the government’s escalating debt. Here’s the deal: