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Economic Predictions Archive

The Path by Which We Got Here

Posted September 22, 2020 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us […]

           

Stocks are Falling into Fall

Posted September 18, 2020 By David Haggith

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

           
S&P 500 Crash Target 2000

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom. As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a […]

           

Stock Market’s Caged Bear about to Rattle Himself Loose!

Posted September 1, 2020 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.

           
Horoscope chart: "Elliott Wave Theory is the horoscope of the stock market." Source: Constellarius / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)

Elliott Wave charts are the stock market’s horoscope. Some advocates of Elliott Wave Theory even believe the stock market only collapses due to EW alignments. Even the least faithful Elliott acolytes believe the market is eternally fated to match up over time with the probabilities the charts have revealed.

           

You Could Get Mad as Hell and Just Not Take This Anymore!

Posted July 17, 2020 By David Haggith

It’s time to show you’re Fed up! Get mad as hell! Don’t take this any more! Scorch the earth with your rage! Yell from the rooftops! Stick your head out the window and scream! Fight the economic injustice that serves the rich! Kick political asses, and kick them hard! Don’t just whine, do something about […]

           
Photo of breadlines during the Great Depression

The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a “swift and massive shock” that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said.… “This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group Vice President for […]

           

Epochalypse Now: How Deep is Your Depression?

Posted July 9, 2020 By David Haggith

We are nearing that mid-point in July when I said we would start to see the news turn from euphoria-inducing reopening positives to depression-developing realism. Speaking of stock-market bulls who are stampeding uphill on the euphoria side, I wrote, Right now the farce is with them — reopening has arrived! And these stupid people will […]

           
The 2018-2-19 Housing Market Crash 2.0 is just getting started.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

           
Photo of a car used as a tent to demonstrate depth of Great Depression in these economic predictions.

The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.

           

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

           

Jerome Powell burst the stock market bubble by publicly acknowledging there will not likely be a “V”-shaped economic recovery. He indicated that it will take years for the economy to return to the recent levels … we experienced just a mere four months ago. —Seeking Alpha

           

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

           

An Epocalypse Upon Us

Posted May 26, 2020 By David Haggith

I’ve missed a few predictions along the way, but usually only in part. When I missed, it was because I took the bad too far. The bad has almost always happened exactly when I said it would but hasn’t always been as bad as I said it would be. Now, it has all arrived and […]