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Economic Predictions Archive

Photo of a car used as a tent to demonstrate depth of Great Depression in these economic predictions.

The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.

           

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

           

Jerome Powell burst the stock market bubble by publicly acknowledging there will not likely be a “V”-shaped economic recovery. He indicated that it will take years for the economy to return to the recent levels … we experienced just a mere four months ago. —Seeking Alpha

           

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

           

An Epocalypse Upon Us

Posted May 26, 2020 By David Haggith

I’ve missed a few predictions along the way, but usually only in part. When I missed, it was because I took the bad too far. The bad has almost always happened exactly when I said it would but hasn’t always been as bad as I said it would be. Now, it has all arrived and […]

           
Plane made of dollar bills going down in flames as we move to digital currency instead.

Many people are warming up to the idea of digital currency in a cashless society due to coronavirus because going touch free is cleaner than cash. Many businesses are already moving to make digital currency the only form of transaction they will engage in so their customers and their employees feel safe.

           

Protected: MMT is Here! Start Stacking Money Like Firewood

Posted April 19, 2020 By David Haggith
Kids stacking German marks in the Weimer Republic

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

           

Four years after the following lead-in article to my Epocalypse series was written, it is coming true before your eyes. Some of it came true right after it was written. Most is happening now. You can see the events it describes overtaking us in all the ways it laid out, and you can go back […]

           

The Return of the Epocalypse

Posted April 11, 2020 By David Haggith

In August of 2015 I started writing about The Great Recession 2.0 that was coming upon us. I called it “The Epocalypse” to signify an economic apocalypse that would be epic in scale and that would begin a new epoch on earth — a turbulent time of great global financial decline.

           

The Recession Called “Repocalypse”

Posted February 11, 2020 By David Haggith
John Robert Charlton [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

There is, at least, one highly recognized economist who agrees with me that a recession started forming in the summer of 2019 and is still emerging, in spite of the Fed’s strongest efforts to stop it — David Rosenberg: We recall all too well the euphoria that followed the early 2001 and late 2007 Fed […]

           

Sizing up the 2017-2020 Housing Cliff Hanger

Posted February 8, 2020 By David Haggith
A housing market crash in 2018 is where we start 2019

The best time to size up the collapse in housing that I called almost two years ago will be when it is over — so we can visualize its full extent. Since it is now over by some measures, though not by others, this might be as good as we get for awhile as a […]

           

GDP is In, and Recession is Out … or is it?

Posted February 3, 2020 By David Haggith

Having predicted last year that a recession would begin in the summer of 2019 and that it would likely start with a major repo crisis, I am now proven wrong by 2019’s fourth-quarter GDP. If the repo crisis that started in the final week of summer had actually been the start of a recession, we […]

           
Gathering around the stock ticker during the 1929 US stock market crash.

I’m not going to predict when and how the US stock market will crash as I did by laying out the stages of its fall for 2018. That was easy, but the times are different now. Back then, the Fed had laid out a precise schedule for its tightening, and it was apparent to me […]

           

Since hindsight is 2020, I thought it might be useful now that we are far past the time in 2018 when I called the fall of the US housing market to assess where its journey went during the year and a half that has gone by before I venture a housing market prediction for 2020.