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Economic Predictions Archive

Treasury employee moves wheelbarrow full of money, destined for destruction. (National Photo Company Collection, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

I’ve said inflation will rise much higher than the Fed believes and will persist much longer and that it will eventually kill the latest stock market bull and the economy. If these inflation predictions prove wrong, I’ll stop writing my blog. Simple as that. That is how firmly I believe what I am saying and […]

Katelynn & Jordan Hewlett, AP, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market

Posted May 12, 2021 By David Haggith
stock market roller coaster sets up 2019 recession

I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ […]

Barreling Toward Epocalypse: Grading My 2020 Predictions

Posted January 13, 2021 By David Haggith
By Photo credited to the firm Levy & fils by this site. (It is credited to a photographer "Kuhn" by another publisher [1].) (the source was not disclosed by its uploader.) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

After each year closes, I typically grade myself on the predictions I made for that year. My last set of predictions were written near the end of June, during our reopening from the COVID lockdowns, for the second half: “2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse.” I led off with this […]

The Great Reset: Leaning into 2021 Money Storm

Posted December 31, 2020 By David Haggith
By Gabriel S. Delgado C. from Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela (Avaricia III: It's raining money Uploaded by Fæ) [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

The big talk among economists and central banksters and some politicians in 2020 has shifted toward how the Coronacrisis will (or “must”) result in a global financial/social reset. I’ve said for years we can anticipate central bank digital currencies (even before that term existed) to happen in conjunction with a global financial reset. Now we […]

Protected: The Big Changes in Central Banking are Already Here!

Posted December 31, 2020 By David Haggith
Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction not happening yet even as the Fed applauds its own success

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Halloween Madness Tears Stock Market to Shreds

Posted October 31, 2020 By David Haggith
Federal Reserve hacking its own recovery to death

Investors will start to realize the economy is not recovering in August, I said. As result, the stock market will break sometime in August or September, I said. It will likely experience an even bigger plunge as an October surprise, I said, because something about October loves a Halloweenish surprise for stocks.

The Upbeat Downbeat on Housing and Commercial Real Estate

Posted October 14, 2020 By David Haggith
Falling housing prices may cause Housing Market Crash 2.0.

I mentioned in a recent article that the weird thing about this recession is that it is the only one in which personal income has gone up during a recession. That, of course, is because of government assistance, which is making it so we don’t have to feel the pain of a recession that the […]

The Path by Which We Got Here

Posted September 22, 2020 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us […]

Stocks are Falling into Fall

Posted September 18, 2020 By David Haggith

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

S&P 500 Crash Target 2000

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom. As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a […]

Stock Market’s Caged Bear about to Rattle Himself Loose!

Posted September 1, 2020 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.

You Could Get Mad as Hell and Just Not Take This Anymore!

Posted July 17, 2020 By David Haggith

It’s time to show you’re Fed up! Get mad as hell! Don’t take this any more! Scorch the earth with your rage! Yell from the rooftops! Stick your head out the window and scream! Fight the economic injustice that serves the rich! Kick political asses, and kick them hard! Don’t just whine, do something about […]

Photo of breadlines during the Great Depression

The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a “swift and massive shock” that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said.… “This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group Vice President for […]