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Economic Predictions Archive

The Great Recession never ended. I say that because the deep economic flaws that caused it were never corrected. All recovery efforts since merely clouded our eyes to the problems growing larger around us, even making them worse, and now we are going back into the belly of the Great Recession.

           

Bubble Bubba Isn’t Doing Fine Anymore

Posted August 14, 2019 By David Haggith

Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]

           

And That’s How it All Came Down

Posted August 6, 2019 By David Haggith
Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]

           
Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

           

Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

           

Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

Posted June 12, 2019 By David Haggith
Knowing how to invest in oil means not having barrel of it leaking around your home. | By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

           

You Know Things are Falling When…

Posted May 25, 2019 By David Haggith
Decade-long trend of S&P for its bottoms becomes trend for it stops and then nothing.

…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.

           

Protected: Teasing out the Fed’s Big Plan for our Future

Posted April 12, 2019 By David Haggith
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

           

Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

Posted April 5, 2019 By David Haggith
2019 recession coming - dust bowl photo

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

           
Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]

           

US Budget Deficit and Interest Take Trip to the Moon

Posted March 6, 2019 By David Haggith
Fed's rocket ride tries to escape economic collapse on earth.

In my first Premium Post back in January, “2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century,” I laid out sixteen major headwinds that would be howling against the economy this year. One of those was the government debt, which I said was about to skyrocket: If you thought the government deficit exploded last year […]

           

More Evidence that the Bears Have it Dead Right

Posted February 25, 2019 By David Haggith

In my last article, “The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions,” I laid out my first prediction for 2019 — a recession by summer. I don’t want the following revelations and facts that I have since come across to get lost in comments I recently posted to that article, so […]

           

Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said bears would starve because 2018 was going to be the year of “global synchronize growth.” We bears bawled that this was euphoric nonsense. Global economies fell off a cliff […]

           

2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century

Posted January 8, 2019 By David Haggith

2018 was the year Wall Street was wrong about everything. You can trust your stock broker if you want, but 2018 doesn’t give much confidence in her ability to stop talking her book and start talking straight. However, this overview of global economic headwinds — greater in number and more severe than I can ever […]