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Economic Predictions Archive

Dr. Fed Frankenstein Kept Alive by Zombies

Posted December 27, 2019 By David Haggith
Zombie economists create US 20116 recession

Did you know Dr. Frankenstein created a monster that stays alive to this day by eating zombies? Neither did the zombies. Neither, apparently, did Dr. Frankenstein. In fact, the zombies, being braindead as zombies are, do not realize that they are also keeping alive the diabolical doctor who made the monster that is eating them.

Repocalypse: The Second Coming

Posted December 23, 2019 By David Haggith
John Robert Charlton [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

This little monster that feeds beneath the surface of global banking at its core briefly raised one ugly eye out of the water as 2018 turned into 2019. I wrote back then that the interest spike we saw in the kind of overnight interbank lending known as repurchase agreements (repos) was just the foreshock of […]

A Love Letter to my Crow about my 2019 Predictions

Posted November 15, 2019 By David Haggith
By Randy Robertson [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Not-so-TruBlu97 was doing some of his typical cawing and provided the incentive for me, as we near the end of the year, to review the predictions I made for 2019, the most important one of which was locked within a Patron Post.

The Relentless Road to Recession

Posted October 5, 2019 By David Haggith

“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.

The Great Recession never ended. I say that because the deep economic flaws that caused it were never corrected. All recovery efforts since merely clouded our eyes to the problems growing larger around us, even making them worse, and now we are going back into the belly of the Great Recession.

Bubble Bubba Isn’t Doing Fine Anymore

Posted August 14, 2019 By David Haggith

Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]

And That’s How it All Came Down

Posted August 6, 2019 By David Haggith
Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]

Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

Posted June 12, 2019 By David Haggith
Knowing how to invest in oil means not having barrel of it leaking around your home. | By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

You Know Things are Falling When…

Posted May 25, 2019 By David Haggith
Decade-long trend of S&P for its bottoms becomes trend for it stops and then nothing.

…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.

Protected: Teasing out the Fed’s Big Plan for our Future

Posted April 12, 2019 By David Haggith
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

Posted April 5, 2019 By David Haggith
2019 recession coming - dust bowl photo

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]