Economic Predictions Archive

Cover art for "Home Deus," the Hebrew edition of a book by Dr. Yuval Noah Harari

The experts in AI admit they know almost nothing about how the artificial intelligence they have created will go about proceeding with any designated program because it is self-programmable. It takes on a life of its own. Some developers have claimed it is already nearly godlike and reaching for divinity. Some say it cannot be stopped. Some even warn their own experiences with it demonstrate that it is sentient and malicious or evil.

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Bill Gates has dollar signs in his eyes as he envisions a cashless society

Back in the distant days of black-and-white television, when you had to get up periodically in the middle of your show to turn a little knob labeled “vertical hold” or another called “horizontal hold” to stop the flippin’ picture on the tube from rolling by, a fringy show called The Outer Limits …

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Federal Reserve's Great Recovery Rewind is reducing reserves banks hold as protection against runs.

Just when you have figured out what you’re going to write about at the start of day, along comes major morning news that sweeps your plans away. Today, the news changed more quickly than I could write the introduction to this article. I had to rewrite it and the headline several times after I published the article!

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By Marcosleal (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (], via Wikimedia Commons

Not all these voices are “great” as in “wise,” but some are that, too. What follows are some of the words from a couple of big economic thinkers who have predicted big crashes in the past and one major establishment voice who, all of last year, has been contradicting the predictions of his big colleagues.

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The Wall Street prophets of profits have moved to a higher level of highs as the opiate smoke circles their brains. They have shifted their dialectic from the US economy making a “soft landing” to a new “no-landing” prediction. By this they are claiming, in all their flash-and-shine prose, that the Fed may be a miracle worker, able to keep on fighting inflation while also levitating the economy. In other words, news of higher inflation made everything a little bit better.

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The big news carried in The Daily Doom today was recession after recession and inflation after inflation. They’re both back (or “back to back”), and boy are they mad! This year’s big predictions on The Great Recession Blog appear to be lining up to start tearing things up this week as a nice little gooey Valentine’s surprise that ain’t yo’ mama’s box o’ chocolates!

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2023 Economic Predictions: The Road Dead Ahead

Posted January 31, 2023 By David Haggith
Carmageddon keeps on rolling

Since this is a long article packed with my predictions (and some near-predictions, so let’s say “high likelihoods”), you will probably want to read it in sections, which you’ll find cover my ongoing predictions about the following topics: To make it easier to get back to where you left off, I’ve made these targeted links […]

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2023 Prediction: The Fed’s Inflation Fight is FAR from over!

Posted January 24, 2023 By David Haggith
From an epocalypse of another time By Dorothea Lange, Farm Security Administration / Office of War Information / Office of Emergency Management / Resettlement Administration [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

The dominant theme for last year, I said way back in 2021, would be that inflation would become such a raging inferno it would force the Fed to tighten harder than anyone expected by rapidly raising interest and erasing money supply, causing stock and bond markets to both crash together (a coinciding set of events […]

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Powell’s Peril Lies in Lanquishing Labor Market

Posted December 14, 2022 By David Haggith

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did the best he could with the limited options the Fed has created for itself, and he said nothing unexpected. The Fed will continue its course at a slower rate of interest rate increases but raise interest to a higher level than it has thought it would have to all year […]

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The Bear is Uncaged … Again

Posted December 6, 2022 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

It’s important to say when you were wrong, especially if you are prone to point out when you were right. Otherwise, you are just boasting in vain conceit. If you point it out both ways, you are just being factual.

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cashless society cover of The Economist

For years, I’ve written about the creeping approach of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as a replacement for coin and paper money that will give government much deeper control over you. Now the time has arrived … IN THE US. Yesterday, The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published the following notice:

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Something Wicked is STILL Prowling Nearby

Posted November 1, 2022 By David Haggith

Now that the Dow finished its best October ever, it is more than clear my anticipation of an October surprise that would deliver a “horrendous” stock plunge couldn’t have been more wrong. That was an October surprise on me. It was not, however, a large one, as I didn’t have a lot of conviction when […]

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