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Will We be Force-Fed Fedbucks, or Will the Frogs Gladly Be Boiled Alive?

Posted May 2, 2023 By David Haggith

I was recently asked how on earth the Federal Reserve will get US citizens to convert to the purely digital currency the Fed has been talking about for a few years now. That’s a good question that I’ve dealt with a little in the past; and, since the Fed’s public rollout of its premier first step in that direction is scheduled for this July, now seems like a good time to recap all of that.

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The Day the “Coming Doom Loop” Went Loopy

Posted April 7, 2023 By David Haggith

In just a single day last week, The Daily Doom ran three stories, hot in the financial headlines, from three different authors that prominently featured the term “doom loop.” I guess The Daily Doom was an aptly chosen name for the news we have today. Now, maybe that all started with Nobel Laureate Nouriel Roubini […]

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The Balloons Are All Falling: What Some of the Great Voices Predict for 2023 and Beyond

Posted March 2, 2023 By David Haggith
By Marcosleal (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Not all these voices are “great” as in “wise,” but some are that, too. What follows are some of the words from a couple of big economic thinkers who have predicted big crashes in the past and one major establishment voice who, all of last year, has been contradicting the predictions of his big colleagues.

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2023 Economic Predictions: The Road Dead Ahead

Posted January 31, 2023 By David Haggith
Carmageddon keeps on rolling

Since this is a long article packed with my predictions (and some near-predictions, so let’s say “high likelihoods”), you will probably want to read it in sections, which you’ll find cover my ongoing predictions about the following topics: To make it easier to get back to where you left off, I’ve made these targeted links […]

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While the Fed is Crushing Jobs, I’m Crunching Job Numbers, and They Are a Smashup Mashup!

Posted January 8, 2023 By David Haggith

What a mess of convoluted reporting and contradictory data we have to sort through as a result of the once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis the Fed’s profligate recovery plans and our crazed Covid lockdowns and other sundry problems have heaped upon us. Very few people understand the gravity of the situation because of the twists involved in […]

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2022: The Year that Imploded … Bigly

Posted December 20, 2022 By David Haggith
Falling housing prices may cause Housing Market Crash 2.0.

This was the year where it seemed everything imploded. For the economy, it started with two quarters of receding GDP that everyone refused to call a recession. Whether you stand with the crowd on that or not, it was certainly not a good change and is certainly a collapse of the economy toward a smaller […]

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Something Wicked is STILL Prowling Nearby

Posted November 1, 2022 By David Haggith

Now that the Dow finished its best October ever, it is more than clear my anticipation of an October surprise that would deliver a “horrendous” stock plunge couldn’t have been more wrong. That was an October surprise on me. It was not, however, a large one, as I didn’t have a lot of conviction when […]

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This October’s Surprise Will Only Be a Surprise Here If it Doesn’t Happen

Posted October 14, 2022 By David Haggith
Cleaning up after the daily economic news

Thursday morning CPI, again, proved what has become my standing narrative for two years — that hot inflation would force the Fed to tighten faster and harder and would kill the economy, the bond market and stocks — when all of the following headlines hit on a single morning (as collected on The Daily Doom): […]

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Everyone Sings the “Strong Labor Market” Tune in Unison as the Band Plays on, and They’re All DEAD Wrong!

Posted September 18, 2022 By David Haggith
Illustration of the Titanic sinking with iceberg in background

Everyone in financial media is singing in unison, and the song they are all singing is a recessional for the recession — a hymn or musical piece sung while making an exit. It’s an attempt to make the recession recede from view, to talk it out of existence, to convince everyone that what is, is […]

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Economic Predictions for H2 2022, Conclusion: A Bifurcated World of Woes Awaits

Posted September 16, 2022 By David Haggith
By Germán Torreblanca (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Writing is a tough balancing act, especially when you know a fair number of people in your regular audience are not likely to like what you write. That is made even more precarious in a world so far off balance that it is now dividing like an amoeba into Left and Right halves and cracking […]

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Economic Predictions for H2 2022, Part 3: Battle of the New Currency Competitors

Posted August 7, 2022 By David Haggith

All currencies appear to be on a march into hell with the bloated dollar holding up by far the best, though the US economy faces abundant hazards. The star players to come out of the wings during this currency war will be central bank digital currencies. While the dollar is sinking in purchasing power locally, […]

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Economic Predictions for H2 2022, Part 1: This is not Your Father’s Inflation

Posted July 31, 2022 By David Haggith
Katelynn & Jordan Hewlett, AP, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

The following is the first part of a broad overview of the major trends I believe are going to be the dominant stories for the rest of the year with my own projections for where these stories are going. This first part covers what I believe is going to happen (in broad terms) my prediction […]

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