Everything Is Changing Quickly Now and So Am I

As my expression of appreciation to my patrons, I try to give you the most critical economic insights ahead of everyone else. For example, back in February of 2021 I started laying out my argument for Patrons as to why and how inflation was going to become a serious conflagration that would rise to such heat it would rip stocks to shreds and take the economy down with it. Recently, Wolf Richter confirmed that is precisely when inflation first started to become hot enough that it began ravaging stocks — at first, unrecognized by most — along the most overpriced fringe of the market:

The S&P 500 Index has dropped 23% from its high on January 3rd, the Nasdaq has dropped 33% from its high on November 22. But here is the thing: many, and I mean a whole bunch of the biggest high-flyers peaked in February 2021, so about nine months before the Nasdaq peaked, and they have since then collapsed by 70%, 80%, and even over 90%. So what happened around February 2021 that caused investors to dump those stocks and abandon them?

Inflation was suddenly surging, while the Federal Reserve was still printing money hand-over-fist and was still repressing interest rates, and while the third round of stimulus checks were getting set up to be sent out in March. And all these inflation issues were vigorously brushed off by the Federal Reserve, by the media, by economists, and most vigorously by hype-and-hoopla Wall Street….

By March 3, 2021, 10 months before the S&P 500 Index peaked, this bloodletting beneath the surface that had kicked off in February 2021, was becoming so brutal and so obvious that it gave rise to my first article on this phenomenon.

Richter now points out that we have seen inflation tear relentlessly deeper into the stock market in a long burnout. This it has done by driving the Fed to tighten and then tighten harder and by biting deep into the backside of earnings. As Wolf asked in his own article just one month after my Patron Post on that subject: “Was That the IPO Stocks Bubble that Just Popped?” He wrote, “When there are suddenly second thoughts in this market powered by so much blind and crazy exuberance, the entire foundation begins to wobble.”

Wobble stocks did, worse and worse — first little bit by little bit, insidiously, then more notably chunk by chunk, then in occasional cascades, until this year they began avalanching everywhere … along with bonds and along with cryptos and even gold.

I recently took a little ride myself

It’s time, again, to pull together my predictions for the remainder of 2022 and going into 2023 and to present those, as usual, first to my patrons and then parceled out over time to others. However, before we launch into the things of the future, I’ve got some explaining to do to my patrons about things of the recent past.

The recent ride I took wasn’t on the stock train. I was asked back in March to consider teaming up on a website to be the managing editor of all their content, to publish all of my own articles originally there, and become the voice of the site via podcasts, etc. It looked like an opportunity to do all that I do on The Great Recession Blog but to expand on it and to work with a larger audience. It promised what sounded like a career position that would replace the job I lost under the Biden Mandate when I refused the vaccine.

That ultimately did not work out as planned. The site placed too many requirements on my time to pull together content that was either not all to my interest or to publish articles that were sometimes more conspiratorial than I care to go. Most of all, we failed to reach an agreement on the financial side that was even remotely in line with what I was originally led to believe would happen. (Not that anyone intentionally lied to me but that early assurances did not pan out.)

It also turned out, the site owners decide to require I stop writing privileged content for my patrons. That was not mentioned in our initial conversations. I didn’t stop, but I would have eventually had to. Then, during the learning curve with that site, I found the work there took up most of my time to where I didn’t even have time to get out the usual thank-you posts for your patronage or usual number of articles available to all on TGRB.

(If I had signed a final agreement with them, I intended to give all of my patrons warning time so they could unsubscribe before the next payment for July processes in case the privileged content is you main reason for patronage, and I would have written another article or two with continued access to those patrons who signed off just to make sure everyone got as much as was promised for the patronage they have already put in.)

That is why I am making this article and the main one to follow open to patrons who signed off during the time when I was not as productive. It’s my apology for falling behind as I spent the last couple of months running the other site under a temporary agreement that I chose this weekend not to turn into a final agreement when those I was dealing with once again came up short on the deadline I set for an agreement and short in what they were willing to pay. Running that site left me with less time for TGRB than I thought I would and the negotiation process took months longer than I thought it would.

BUT THAT MEANS GOOD NEWS FOR MY PATRONS AND ALL READERS ON THE GREAT RECESSION BLOG! What I’ve chosen to do, instead of going back to looking for a regular job to replace the one I lost over the vaccine, is to retire from the regular working world for good in order to work full-time for the first time in many years on The Great Recession Blog. That means more articles from me for everyone, more regular Patron Posts (although possibly not so long), and probably some feature articles from other writers.

You may have already seen that I just started a daily (five-days-a-week) news section for all the kinds of news I come across each morning that relates to the topics of TGRB. Ultimately, I am also thinking about developing a new website with a new name because the old name has outlived its usefulness; but I’d like to hear comments from my patrons about what you would like to see, what you have liked and have not liked about TGRB and about my patron articles to help me formulate where I want to go with this.

From Russia without love

After being terminated over the vaccine, I did a lot of writing for RT.com (Putin’s government-funded propaganda publisher) because I needed to make up some of the lost primary income. That worked well for continuing to write for The Great Recession Blog as well because RT was fine with my publishing anything I wrote for them on my own site, too. So, RT helped cover the monthly bills, and about half the articles I did for them worked on TGRB, so the content kept flowing reasonably well here. (TGRB has always been mostly a labor of love, far from providing my share of our household income.)

Only a few months later, however, Putin invaded Ukraine so that I once again walked away from my main source of income on a principle that was important to me even if to few others. As a result, once again, I needed to replace that income, and the site I am talking about called me within a few days of that decision.

Secondarily, with the Western world laying sanctions on Russia because of Putin’s War, it became obvious that continuing direct deposits from a bank in Moscow into my bank account might be heavily scrutinized by the US government. In fact, I think those transfers quickly ceased to even be possible; but I didn’t wait to find out. (I see other longtime stars of RT, such as Max Keiser, quit writing for RT on the same day I sent my notice to RT that I would write for them no more — perhaps because payment would not even be possible or maybe for their own personal reasons like mine regarding the war.)

Onward and upward

I thank all of you who have been supportive. I was going to quit writing on economics several years back if I couldn’t get a minimum of $500 a month in patronage as some practical measure of whether the articles have value to others. I figured if I couldn’t even get that much support, I am clearly overvaluing what I am donating so much of my time to (as the limited advertising on the site only covers the cost of hosting it and registering the domain, etc.)

Several jumped in to provide that support, and over time, it built to a peak of about $800 a month, but it was always far less than what anyone needs to sustain themselves in the world, especially today’s world of soaring expenses. Your support, however, said there was enough interest to merit soldiering on. That support has now fallen below $650 a month, but that’s OK. I understand that it would naturally fall as my own contributions of time fell, and I understand it also might fall as people’s budgets become more stressed. (At the same time, that might be when people could most benefit from this kind of content, but I get it. Knowing what is coming at you doesn’t’t necessarily help pay the bills.)

With my full-time focus now on my writing, you’ll get a few more Patron Posts from me plus links to many related news stories each weekday morning, and I’ll write more articles that are generally available on my site. If you look at The Daily Doom page, where I will be aggregating the news each morning and afternoon, you will see you are not just getting a broad swath of news like you might on the Drudge Report. Since everyone suffers from information overload in today’s world, you’ll be getting focused information that I believe you will find interesting on the basis that you’ve found my writing interesting enough to voluntarily support it. And, different from The Drudge Report, it is also organized by continuing topics so you can quickly go to the kinds of things that most interest you. The articles won’t all agree with my viewpoint (or anyone’s), as I read widely, but they will provide perspectives on the themes I write about, and many of the articles are found on alternative news sites and not only in mainstream news.

So, my next Patron Post will be made available to all patrons — past and present — as an attempt at a reset. Your continued support would be amazing; but, either way, I hope you will continue to be a regular reader of TGRB and whatever develops from that. Coming up next, then, … my predictions for the months ahead.

Thank you,

David