Introduction to “Letters to Stan”
The next article begins a series of excerpts from letters written to a man I shall simply call by his first name. Stan is a Chinese-American investor, who travels extensively through Asia, who has lived in Taiwan and Hong Kong for many years. He’s a former financial advisor and a personal friend. I share these letters because, prior to writing this blog, they were the only writings on the economy I did after the Downtime series. It was during this letter writing period that I predicted the significant economic events that happened in 2011. So, the letters are quoted to provide evidence of the accuracy of those economic predictions. It was also these letters that led to the idea to create this blog.
My purpose in showing where I was pretty much right on with each economic prediction is not so much to boast, though it will appear to be, but to show that our present problems can and should have been seen by the Bush administration, the Obama administration, the Federal Reserve, Congress, and by all the major corporations that played a roll in bringing this crisis about. They should also have been seen by that great watchdog, the Press. If I can see each turn in the road coming, certainly those with access to far more information should see each problem coming, especially when they are paid so highly to avert such problems and when some have such high training in economics coupled with great insider connections that I do not have.
Likewise, if I saw clearly why their responses to the economic crisis would fail to get us out of this Great Recession and how long it would take for those plans to fail, then our highly-paid leaders are without excuse for wasting trillions of dollars on such lame ideas. I want people to see that this entire economic crisis could be seen coming months before it hit and that each new turn could be anticipated by anyone willing to look critically at ideas and willing to see truths they don’t want to see. We must break out of our own economic denial and out of party loyalty (Republican or Democrat / Conservative or Liberal) if we are going to see ideas for their actual merits or demerits and see the likely effects of those ideas accurately. We must try to see what we do not want to see in our future if we are to overcome our own biases.
Until our nation and our world can see clearly, we will remain mired in this mess. In my opinion very few people in high places and very few in the press are seeing anything clearly so far. So, this evidence is presented in order to goad them about what they missed. It is also presented for the insights that occurred along the path that are still of value in assessing our present situation. (Or present at the time I am writing this.)
I have edited the letters to remove personal or extraneous material or to add clarification and uploading them on November 16, 2011. I post-dated their publication online according to the dates displayed on each letter, so the dates are actual.