2022: The Year that Imploded … Bigly

Posted December 21, 2022 By David Haggith
Falling housing prices may cause Housing Market Crash 2.0.

This was the year where it seemed everything imploded. For the economy, it started with two quarters of receding GDP that everyone refused to call a recession. Whether you stand with the crowd on that or not, it was certainly not a good change and was certainly a collapse of the economy toward a smaller […]

Be the first to comment

2022: The Year that Imploded … Bigly

Posted December 20, 2022 By David Haggith
Falling housing prices may cause Housing Market Crash 2.0.

This was the year where it seemed everything imploded. For the economy, it started with two quarters of receding GDP that everyone refused to call a recession. Whether you stand with the crowd on that or not, it was certainly not a good change and is certainly a collapse of the economy toward a smaller […]

Be the first to comment

The Big Bear is Back and Papa Powell’s on the Prowl!

Posted December 17, 2022 By David Haggith
The bear is back

We now have solid confirmation that the bear market did not go away and that the rally that began in October was just another typical bear-market rally. Look at the three graphs below to see how perfectly it fits the pattern of all the other bear-market rallies this year, which means we are heading down […]

Be the first to comment

Having written that Powell’s Peril Lies in the Lanquishing Labor Market and that we are Fed up and Under-Fed All at the Same Time because Everyone Sings the “Strong Labor Market” Tune in Unison … and They’re All DEAD Wrong, I finally get some VINDICATION! Major vindication!

Be the first to comment

The languishing labor market has been the Fed’s path to peril, as I wrote yesterday in assessing how the Fed’s latest moves were perfectly predictable. I tried over the past year to lay out each step the Fed and the stock market would take together, and they followed those stepping stones like the Yellow Brick […]

Be the first to comment

Powell’s Peril Lies in Lanquishing Labor Market

Posted December 14, 2022 By David Haggith

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did the best he could with the limited options the Fed has created for itself, and he said nothing unexpected. The Fed will continue its course at a slower rate of interest rate increases but raise interest to a higher level than it has thought it would have to all year […]

Be the first to comment

CPI Didn’t Give the Stock Market What it Believed it Wanted

Posted December 13, 2022 By David Haggith
stock market roller coaster sets up 2019 recession

Stocks soared at the tiny dip in inflation as if they had just been given aviation fuel. And then they didn’t. The climb quickly stalled and sailed back toward the ground with stocks ending modestly up. Look into today’s CPI numbers and even think about the headline for more than a flash, and it’s obvious […]

Be the first to comment

Fed up and Under-Fed All at the Same Time

Posted December 9, 2022 By David Haggith

The Fed is going to tighten an already tight labor market by making sure more of those workers who are already too-few in number are laid off in order to reduce production that was already lower this year than last year in order to lower prices that are too high because of production shortages.

Be the first to comment

The Bear is Uncaged … Again

Posted December 6, 2022 By David Haggith
Is the US stock market going to crash in 2017? [By Philip Timms [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons]

It’s important to say when you were wrong, especially if you are prone to point out when you were right. Otherwise, you are just boasting in vain conceit. If you point it out both ways, you are just being factual.

Be the first to comment

Dissecting the Gross Domestic Pig (GDP)

Posted December 3, 2022 By David Haggith
hedge fund hedge hog (Basile Morin / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0))

On October 28, I wrote that “GDP Stands for One “GROSS Domestic Pig During Election Season.” I claimed the report for GDP was an outright lie. There is no other way to see it. Since then, I have hoped to see others call the Bureau of Economic Analysis out for its lie, but they have […]

Be the first to comment

Protected: How Black Was Friday, Really?

Posted November 30, 2022 By David Haggith
By 95 b-body ss [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], from Wikimedia Commons

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

MN Gordon: Gold Shines Bright

Posted November 27, 2022 By David Haggith
By Agnico-Eagle (Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

Most investments have fallen all year. When they did rise, it was only to bait the bulls and then fall further once again. All assets are adjusting to a world where money is no longer free, so corporations must now earn their way. Gold has taken a more gentle path, and in recent months has […]

Be the first to comment