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Big Bond Bubble Begins to Blow!

The bust is on! Not only is the stock market crashing like never seen before (Dow down 3,000 points today!), but there are now deeply distressing breaks in the bond market. These staggering responses to Fed actions run counter to what is expected; but people are so focused on stocks, the are missing the more […]

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Pandemic Pandemania Causes Global Economic Crisis

Back in the oil-embargo recession of the early 70s when Boeing was Seattle’s economy and was laying off thousands of Seattleites, a billboard on the edge of town by Sea-Tac Airport read, “Will the last person leaving Seattle turn the lights out?” (Boeing had gone from 100,800 employees in 1967 to 38,690 in 1971.)

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Repocalypse: The Second Coming

This little monster that feeds beneath the surface of global banking at its core briefly raised one ugly eye out of the water as 2018 turned into 2019. I wrote back then that the interest spike we saw in the kind of overnight interbank lending known as repurchase agreements (repos) was just the foreshock of […]

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Protected: The Whacky Wonderland of Sovereign Debtors and their Central Banksters

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Why are Bonds Going for Broke?

One argument for last week’s extraordinary plunge in bond prices, which I explored as something that might happen this time of year in one of my earlier Premium Posts, was that bond prices could get crushed by the supersized US treasury auctions planned for September and October as the government makes up for its inability […]

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How’s That Recession Coming, Dave?

Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.

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And That’s How it All Came Down

On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]

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Reading the Next Recession: Will the Great Recession 2.0 become The Great Depression II?

A journey in photos and facts to compare the present Great Recession with the past Great Depression to gain perspective on where we might be headed.

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The Drip, Drip, Drip of Recession

News of significant recessionary drops in the US became as relentless this past week as the ping, ping, pang of drips from a leaking ceiling hitting pans in the New York Stock Exchange. I’ve been saying you would hear the sounds of recession everywhere as soon as the second-quarter earnings reporting season began this summer. […]

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A Long Shadow Creeps over the Economy This Summer

It’s time to turn around and see the darkness that the Fed sees looming over you. Earnings season is already extending signs of recession with the first corporate reports coming in far darker than expectations that were already twilight dim in FactSet’s estimations, which pegged earnings as likely to show a 2% contraction.

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Chairman Powell Moves toward my Recession Prediction and Helps Trump Trade War

The bears that are gathering will soon enough be picking flesh off the sun-bleached bones of this market. Even the Fed Chair, who usually does all he can can to avoid dismal pictures and to sound optimistic, is finally talking downcast about the US economy.

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Protected: Credit Crisis Cruising Toward Collapse

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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The Great Recovery Rewind: How the Federal Reserve’s Balance-Sheet Unwind is Unwinding Recovery

We are in the end time of an unprecedented era of financial expansion — the greatest expansion of the world’s money supply ever attempted, expansion of the Federal Reserve’s vast and unchecked powers far beyond what the Fed could do before the financial crisis, and super-sizing expansion of banks that were already way too big […]

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Book Review: The Permanent Portfolio: Harry Browne’s Long-Term Investment Strategy

One of my readers, Peter Wang, was interested in publishing a few book reviews. This particular book tells you how to invest in bonds. While I’m not making any recommendation for or against bonds, I’ve written a lot about bonds in the last week, and that may have gotten some readers wondering how to actually […]

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