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Big Reveal Coming

It’s all about inflation, but it’s not about today’s news on inflation. The big news on inflation today is not even that it hit 6.8% — its highest level since 1983 — but that the rate of climb for inflation is the steepest it has been in seventy years. However, even that is not the […]

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The Stock Market Does Have a Tipping Point Where Bond Interest and Inflation Both Matter A LOT

We have just entered those days of heady inflation that I have said will kill the stock market and bond funds. There is a tipping point at which inflation and the interest changes that respond to inflation matter, but it has never been a clearly defined point.

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The Big Blindspot that Will Bite Bonds and Stocks in the Butt

The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the ‘processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…. When bond markets sneeze… equity markets can end up on ventilators, dragging confidence down in their wake. Bill […]

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Inflation: The Little Mouse that Roared

The last time I included a particular indicator of where temporary inflation and permanent inflation are headed, the indicator had risen in rather threatening manner to look like this:

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Stocks and Bonds Starting to Tussle

As I’ve written about extensively, we know the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner where it is now pressured to start tapering its quantitative easing earlier than it had been indicating. Now we are seeing signs that the bond market isn’t liking the news out of the last FOMC meeting, which hinted strongly […]

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Bond Baloney Everywhere! Let me help you digest it.

The bond market is crazy weird right now. Inflation is soaring, and bond yields, which are supposed to price in inflation, are falling through the floor, causing many experts to scratch their heads as they try to figure out what on earth to make of it all:

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Fed and Treasury Steer Their Unsinkable Ship toward Iceberg

This past week we got to observe Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the US stock market and the US bond market do everything I said they would do in their complicated shuffle of ships-and-icebergs: “I’m sure many helium-headed stock investors believe the lilly-livered Fed will turn tail and run from its goal of letting inflation […]

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Knock-on Effects Knock out Economy Like Dominoes

The major knock-on effects of the COVID shutdown are now starting to stack against each other, pushing city centers into the dust. Here are some of the big moves that are as characteristic of the US as they are of the world overall.

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Protected: The Great Yield Curve Control Conundrum

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Bank of America is Wrong: We’ve All Become Preppers Now

Bank of America says it is dangerous to ignore the stock market, but a longer tradition says the bond market is the wiser of the two, and it is dangerous to ignore the bond market. Bank of America dreams corporate cash could roll into stocks.

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Crazy Cramer and Kookoo Kudlow Hatch Coronavirus War Bond Goose Egg

Ron Insana, whom I’ve always thought was well named due to the funny way his brain works and the way he smiles even when nothing is happening, has just melded minds with Kudlow & Cramer to support a coronavirus war bond: My colleague, Jim Cramer, made a very interesting recommendation Monday morning, calling on the U.S. Treasury […]

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Big Bond Bubble Begins to Blow!

The bust is on! Not only is the stock market crashing like never seen before (Dow down 3,000 points today!), but there are now deeply distressing breaks in the bond market. These staggering responses to Fed actions run counter to what is expected; but people are so focused on stocks, the are missing the more […]

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