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The Fed is Still Spiking the Inflation Punch Bowl, but the Party is in Recess Anyway

Sizzling inflation is not going away as drunken market revelers are hoping. This party bore, in fact, will be long outstaying her welcome. While the Fed once said it wanted some hot inflation on the scene, she arrived a lot hotter and has stayed a lot longer than Father Fed expected — now kind of […]

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US Economy Crashes Headlong into Recession!

Is it too extreme to say an annualized GDP growth number of minus 1.4% this quarter puts us in recession in this quarter, and is it too extreme to call that a “crash?” No, it is not in the least extreme, and I’ll tell you why, even though the standard definition of a recession is […]

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Inflation May Take the Food out of Your Mouth before it Goes Away

So much has happened with the rise of inflation and so much is continuing to crowd in behind the scenes on the production end that I believe we will see inflation burning hotter for longer in the months ahead. Those saying we are nearing peak inflation are as wrong as they were when they said […]

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The “No-Deal Deal” with China Turned out to be the “Never-Done Deal”

A new report by the conservative Peterson Institute for International Economics says, “China Was Never On Path to Meet ‘Phase 1’ Purchase Commitments.” The report confirms my claim in December, 2019, that Trump offered a fake Phase One deal because he had failed in his trade war and needed a win for his campaign.

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Federal Job Fakery Hits Peak Balderdash

The White House warned us the payrolls print would be low due to Omicron. Bank economists ranged from low to sub-basement negative numbers for today’s expected payroll print. Then the number came out massive beyond belief … and self-contradictory beyond belief as well.

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Protected: The Everything Bubble Bust Pt. 1: How Far Will the Stock Avalanche Fall?

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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The Big Reveal is Here!

The day has come, and I am doing as I promised by opening up my most important (in my view) Patron Post for everyone because I want you to understand the key economic event of the next three months. (Patrons at the $5 level and above got to understand what was coming a couple of […]

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The Inflation Death Spiral has Begun: Inflation Hits Stocks, Bonds and Government Like a Bomb Cyclone

One or two dimwits told me I was stupid to be thinking inflation would be the driving force of 2021 due to shortages and Fed money printing. The cockiest one even assured me his second-grade education in economics said inflation wasn’t even happening, yet inflation has relentlessly surged higher every month to finally now hit […]

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The Big Blindspot that Will Bite Bonds and Stocks in the Butt

The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the ‘processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…. When bond markets sneeze… equity markets can end up on ventilators, dragging confidence down in their wake. Bill […]

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BlackRock’s Bovine Foolishness, So Dense and Dark it’s Stunning!

BlackRock’s Jean Boivin just said there are not apparent signs of stagnation — just inflation. What Bovine foolishness: Prices have climbed around the world, with commodities prices surging and U.S. inflation hitting a 13-year high. It’s the first time since the 1970s that a supply shock is the main culprit. This is where the comparison […]

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The Fed’s Argument That It’s Not Directly Financing Government Debt Finally Fails

The most interesting thing about what the Fed is now doing is that it is illegal. The Fed’s argument that it is not monetizing the US debt fails now on its own terms. The Fed is buying treasuries for no purpose other than to directly finance the government’s escalating debt. Here’s the deal: 

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Stock Market as Forward Looking as a Caboose

“Remember that the market is a forward-looking indicator. Ideally, it is pricing in the gains of the next six to 18 months.” (Seeking Alpha) Famous last words again and again. That sunny advice about today’s overpriced market was repeated again about a week ago. It is the same excuse that was routinely deployed at the […]

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