The Great Recession Blog

I’ve said inflation will rise much higher than the Fed believes and will persist much longer and that it will eventually kill the latest stock market bull and the economy. If these inflation predictions prove wrong, I’ll stop writing my blog. Simple as that. That is how firmly I believe what I am saying and […]

Is the inflation I’ve been writing about really all just transitory as Papa Powell claims it is? The Fed Head assures us he has this under control. Would that be just like Father Fed and friends had bank reserves under control right before the repo crisis blew up in late 2019? Or just like they […]

After each year closes, I typically grade myself on the predictions I made for that year. My last set of predictions were written near the end of June, during our reopening from the COVID lockdowns, for the second half: “2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse.” I led off with this […]

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I mentioned in a recent article that the weird thing about this recession is that it is the only one in which personal income has gone up during a recession. That, of course, is because of government assistance, which is making it so we don’t have to feel the pain of a recession that the […]

We are nearing that mid-point in July when I said we would start to see the news turn from euphoria-inducing reopening positives to depression-developing realism. Speaking of stock-market bulls who are stampeding uphill on the euphoria side, I wrote, Right now the farce is with them — reopening has arrived! And these stupid people will […]

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The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

Jerome Powell burst the stock market bubble by publicly acknowledging there will not likely be a “V”-shaped economic recovery. He indicated that it will take years for the economy to return to the recent levels … we experienced just a mere four months ago. —Seeking Alpha

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

The Dow Jones (DJIA) last week ignored the worst US jobs report in history as if it were of no concern because investors hope the coronavirus crisis is here on a short-term stay. Some argue in the market’s defense that the Dow has already discounted bad jobs reports. I say investors have not even begun […]

But it didn’t. Many thought, as did I, Warren Buffett likely set up the next leg down in this ongoing stock market crash. At the Berkshire Hathaway 2020 annual meeting, Buffett admitted that even oracles make big mistakes.

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