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The Fed is Still Spiking the Inflation Punch Bowl, but the Party is in Recess Anyway

Sizzling inflation is not going away as drunken market revelers are hoping. This party bore, in fact, will be long outstaying her welcome. While the Fed once said it wanted some hot inflation on the scene, she arrived a lot hotter and has stayed a lot longer than Father Fed expected — now kind of […]

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Protected: This Economy is Ugly in its Bones – Part 2

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Why the Fed will fail to fight inflation until the recession beats it down

You cannot grow a turnip in a pile of dollar bills unless you let them rot first. Depending on the road the Fed takes, that could become the dollar’s highest value and the best the Fed can do to reduce food shortages. Whether the dollar decays depends, in good part, on whether the Fed chooses […]

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Protected: This Economy is Ugly in its Bones – Part 1

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Inflation May Take the Food out of Your Mouth before it Goes Away

So much has happened with the rise of inflation and so much is continuing to crowd in behind the scenes on the production end that I believe we will see inflation burning hotter for longer in the months ahead. Those saying we are nearing peak inflation are as wrong as they were when they said […]

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The Relentless March of Inflation to the Drumbeats of War is Killing us All

The drumbeats of war are picking up the pace of inflation. Inflation, as I’ve argued here for some time, was certain to rise for months to come; but you’ll see in the various inflation notes below that sanctions made in response to the war are increasing inflation even more, as could be expected, and shortages […]

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Seeing It All Come Together: Months of Predictions Closing in on Quick Collapse

Sometimes weeks happen in a day, and we seem to be living in such times. In my latest Patron Post I laid out how Putin’s War and the sanctions imposed by the West and other nations will cause a tectonic shift in the new world order. It’s already happening.

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The Fed Did It! Inflationary Collapse was Already Here.

For almost two years (starting in 2020 before you could see any consumer inflation at all), I have faithfully and consistently traced our trajectory toward scorching inflation that would cause a market disaster. Prior to that, inflationary burn-out was not an argument I ever made on this site (unlike some who perennially hyperventilate about hyperinflation).

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Passengers Scream Recession as Powell Dives His Plane for a Soft Nose-Cone Landing

Having written my own articles about how we are going into recession dead ahead, I want to back those up with the chorus of alarmed comments everywhere now about Powell is power-diving our economy straight into a recession.

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Government Statistics at it Again: They Adjusted Your Recession from Hell to Heaven!

I tried my best to give the BLS the benefit of the doubt when it did not massage the inflation rate in its last CPI report lower for January than December as I thought it would. I did, that is, until I dug deeper into what the BLS did do. Now government is at it […]

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Expect the Bureau of Lying Statistics to Tell a Whopper with Thursday’s CPI

They already promised they will. That’s the kicker, and everyone in the financial press accepted their promise with no complaints because everyone in finance wants to see lower inflation that won’t disturb broker’s bullish selling and investor sentiment and bond funds and hedge funds, etc. It pays to not question.

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This Tight Labor Market Actually Assures a Stagflation Recession

I try to point out risks I believe most people do not want to see or cannot see because they don’t fit the norm by which people construct their perception of reality. I am accustomed, therefore, to being scoffed at because I am out of step with the thinking of the time, and the majority […]

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