The Great Recession Blog

Market permabulls die because they act like pigs, obsessed with pushing their way into the trough for any scrap of food that remains. For example, people continue to invest in stocks as they face-plant into the hog’s wallow again and again because they can only think of making money the way they have been used […]

You cannot grow a turnip in a pile of dollar bills unless you let them rot first. Depending on the road the Fed takes, that could become the dollar’s highest value and the best the Fed can do to reduce food shortages. Whether the dollar decays depends, in good part, on whether the Fed chooses […]

They say, “Beauty is only skin deep but ugly goes all the way to the bone.” Well, the last part of that certainly sums up this economy. It’s such a malformed monstrosity, you’ll wish it were extinct; and, at the rate this behemoth is now dying, it soon will be. You’ll have to look for […]

So much has happened with the rise of inflation and so much is continuing to crowd in behind the scenes on the production end that I believe we will see inflation burning hotter for longer in the months ahead. Those saying we are nearing peak inflation are as wrong as they were when they said […]

The drumbeats of war are picking up the pace of inflation. Inflation, as I’ve argued here for some time, was certain to rise for months to come; but you’ll see in the various inflation notes below that sanctions made in response to the war are increasing inflation even more, as could be expected, and shortages […]

Sometimes weeks happen in a day, and we seem to be living in such times. In my latest Patron Post I laid out how Putin’s War and the sanctions imposed by the West and other nations will cause a tectonic shift in the new world order. It’s already happening.

For almost two years (starting in 2020 before you could see any consumer inflation at all), I have faithfully and consistently traced our trajectory toward scorching inflation that would cause a market disaster. Prior to that, inflationary burn-out was not an argument I ever made on this site (unlike some who perennially hyperventilate about hyperinflation).

Having written my own articles about how we are going into recession dead ahead, I want to back those up with the chorus of alarmed comments everywhere now about Powell is power-diving our economy straight into a recession.

I tried my best to give the BLS the benefit of the doubt when it did not massage the inflation rate in its last CPI report lower for January than December as I thought it would. I did, that is, until I dug deeper into what the BLS did do. Now government is at it […]

They already promised they will. That’s the kicker, and everyone in the financial press accepted their promise with no complaints because everyone in finance wants to see lower inflation that won’t disturb broker’s bullish selling and investor sentiment and bond funds and hedge funds, etc. It pays to not question.

I try to point out risks I believe most people do not want to see or cannot see because they don’t fit the norm by which people construct their perception of reality. I am accustomed, therefore, to being scoffed at because I am out of step with the thinking of the time, and the majority […]

There is no safety, as in times past when the Fed was draining money out of the economy and could just flip back to pumping money in, because the Fed is running the outflow pump fast and furious, and the Fed has no option for reversing the pump or even just stopping it this time […]