The Great Recession Blog

In just a single day last week, The Daily Doom ran three stories, hot in the financial headlines, from three different authors that prominently featured the term “doom loop.” I guess The Daily Doom was an aptly chosen name for the news we have today. Now, maybe that all started with Nobel Laureate Nouriel Roubini […]

Even though the Fed was specifically chartered to help protect the US from massive economic collapses like we experienced in The Great Depression and to protect banks from major bank runs like banks experienced in the Great Depression, the Fed never sees these things coming. Not only does it fail to see them coming even […]

Ever since last summer Zero Hedge has been pounding the “Fed pivot” fantasy as if it is going to happen — almost as if they want to entice the stupid stock market to keep chasing the fantasy. When it became obvious the Fed was steaming ahead with its inflation battle, ZH backed off a little….

The Fed, in consort with the FDIC and US Treasury, has created two new rescue programs that are rapidly inflating its balance sheet — the Bank Term Funding Program and a revised FDIC policy that covers all deposits at certain banks for any amount of money — sky is the limit — but only if […]

Before you read the following quote from a Fed employee, you had better set your coffee, beer or wine down so you don’t spray all over the carpet or the person next to you. This is how dense the Fed is when it comes to learning from its own mistakes after it first tried quantitative tightening in 2018 and failed miserably:

Investors have been slower than a tank of turtles swimming in molasses when it comes to grasping reality, but they may be getting the message on inflation and the Fed’s fight ahead at last. That said, one should never underestimate the resolve of people to enshrine their wishes as unholy doctrines in order to continue chasing the phantasms of their greed….

This was one of those days where every news headline that went into The Daily Doom this morning made me say, “Of course it did!” — not in the approving kind of way, but in the way you say it as you roll your eyes because you see that, yes, the bread did land jelly-side-down […]

The big news carried in The Daily Doom today was recession after recession and inflation after inflation. They’re both back (or “back to back”), and boy are they mad! This year’s big predictions on The Great Recession Blog appear to be lining up to start tearing things up this week as a nice little gooey Valentine’s surprise that ain’t yo’ mama’s box o’ chocolates!

Since this is a long article packed with my predictions (and some near-predictions, so let’s say “high likelihoods”), you will probably want to read it in sections, which you’ll find cover my ongoing predictions about the following topics: To make it easier to get back to where you left off, I’ve made these targeted links […]

The dominant theme for last year, I said way back in 2021, would be that inflation would become such a raging inferno it would force the Fed to tighten harder than anyone expected by rapidly raising interest and erasing money supply, causing stock and bond markets to both crash together (a coinciding set of events […]

December is supposed to be the month when retails sales flourish. Instead, retail sales came in way below expectations. Retailers were left with warehouses full of overstock, and this situation has been dragging on for about a year now with little sign that it is getting any better.

This was the year where it seemed everything imploded. For the economy, it started with two quarters of receding GDP that everyone refused to call a recession. Whether you stand with the crowd on that or not, it was certainly not a good change and was certainly a collapse of the economy toward a smaller […]