The Great Recession Blog

This was the year where it seemed everything imploded. For the economy, it started with two quarters of receding GDP that everyone refused to call a recession. Whether you stand with the crowd on that or not, it was certainly not a good change and is certainly a collapse of the economy toward a smaller […]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell did the best he could with the limited options the Fed has created for itself, and he said nothing unexpected. The Fed will continue its course at a slower rate of interest rate increases but raise interest to a higher level than it has thought it would have to all year […]

Most investments have fallen all year. When they did rise, it was only to bait the bulls and then fall further once again. All assets are adjusting to a world where money is no longer free, so corporations must now earn their way. Gold has taken a more gentle path, and in recent months has […]

The Federal Reserve – and central banks the world over – played a crucial role in making lockdowns possible and weaponizing the panic of politicians. As the lender of last resort and the provider of liquidity for the entire federal government, it removes normal fiscal restraint. It writes checks that cannot bounce to fuel governments in […]

On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), inflated at an annual rate of 7.7 percent in October.  Investors went bananas on this apparent pullback in the headline CPI…

Historic precedent tells us high inflation like we have now is darn hard to beat down. Jerome Powell also just told everyone it is so hard to beat down that the Fed hasn’t even seen what it would consider a “dent” in inflation in all of its months of trying. How big is the battle […]

President Bidin’-his-Time just got a little reprieve delivered right in time for the upcoming election, and it looks like we’re all having pork for Thanksgiving this year, not turkey. His government served up a nice GDP-growth surprise that came in below the Atlanta Fed’s final GDPNow estimate of 3.1% at 2.6%, but still a solid-looking […]

Well, it’s now official: Inflation did become the hottest news of 2022 as predicted in 2021: “Inflation Becomes The Leading Global Concern In 2022.” The next step in the forecast was that the Fed greatly over tightens because it doesn’t realize we’re already in a recession, and here is proof step-two is nearly complete:

Today the market paid back some of its delusional holdings. It has a lot more left to pay back. You see, the market believed the Fed all of last year when the Fed said inflation was transitory. Or, at least, market leaders sold the Fed’s narrative, accelerating us into a heck of wreck.

Everyone in financial media is singing in unison, and the song they are all singing is a recessional for the recession — a hymn or musical piece sung while making an exit. It’s an attempt to make the recession recede from view, to talk it out of existence, to convince everyone that what is, is […]

Every day, news reporters, traders, and workers of all sorts the world over wake to do their work as they always have. Part of that requires that everyone pretend that life is normal, fixable, and more or less stable. All of this is temporary. It will come and go and really not be that bad.  […]

This time is different because we face structural dynamics that won’t go away in a few months or even years. This time is worse than anything we’ve ever faced in, at least, sixty years … maybe even worse than that…. by Charles Hugh Smith on Of Two Minds: Let’s explore what’s different now compared to […]