The Great Recession Blog

The Dow plunged 686 points midday on Thursday and closed down 458, wiping out a large relief rally from the day before, and it went down for the key reason I laid out for understanding why the Fed will over-tighten and drive the economy into an extremely deep recession. A batch of economic data that […]

Stocks soared, treasuries fell, and the message from Team Fed was “full speed ahead with tightening.” Where did all of Wednesday’s market lunacy come from? We leaped from “Bad news is good news” straight to “Bad news is AMAZING!” Every Fedhead who spoke in Wednesday’s planned lineup made it clear the Fed is dead-reckoning its […]

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, set last week off with a fitting sour note when it was reported across the financial news, he had updated his weather report for the economy: I said there were storm clouds. But I’m going to change it. It’s a hurricane. Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are […]

We could all be on the cusp of the most deadly inflation the world has ever experienced, due to a unique setup of global forces that have the power to accelerate that into happening in a surprisingly short amount of time. I’m going to tell you how that could happen more quickly than anyone appears […]

Better strap on your parachute and exit the plane ahead of landing because there is no getting out of a crash landing now that inflation is burning the landing gear off the bottom of the Fed’s plane. Captain “Bring-her-home Jerome” Powell was already trying to land his Federal Airlines 747 at the steepest angle of […]

This past week was a stormy ride through the badlands of hell for bonds. Government bond prices took their worst cliff-fall since the Marshall Plan. The panic run of bonds over the edge was sparked by the fantasy belief that Russia might be retreating, bringing a rapid end to Putin’s invasion and the opposing sanctions.

The Everything Bubble is bursting, and the Fed has barely even begun its war on inflation. Many top stocks are already in their own bear markets. Nvidia, way off its game, has lost 25% of its value from its last high score. The ridiculously skyrocketing Tesla has plunged back toward earth’s gravity on a trajectory […]

The Fed has a solid track record of killing its children and eating them, which is to say destroying all of recoveries it worked so hard to originally nurture. This it does by how it shifts into tightening mode with a jolt, almost always taking down the stock market with it. This time is no […]

It’s all about inflation, but it’s not about today’s news on inflation. The big news on inflation today is not even that it hit 6.8% — its highest level since 1983 — but that the rate of climb for inflation is the steepest it has been in seventy years. However, even that is not the […]

Not even close to transitory. After giving its turkey advice for Thanksgiving, the Federal Reserve finally gave up completely on the “Inflation is transitory” chorus it has been singing all year. Chairman Powell of the People’s Bank of Amerika stated outright today that inflation is not transitory after all, confirming what I have been preaching […]

We have just entered those days of heady inflation that I have said will kill the stock market and bond funds. There is a tipping point at which inflation and the interest changes that respond to inflation matter, but it has never been a clearly defined point.

In an effort to prove the Fed’s tapering won’t matter, I recently saw one stock advisor claim that, when the Fed tapered its QE from late 2015 into 2016, “the stock market rallied 60% in an almost straight line higher.” Wow! Let’s take a look at that! Here is what the stock market actually did […]