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Two Primary Pointers to Recession are Rapidly Diving Deeper

One who was a solitary voice in claiming the year began in a recession has now been joined by several significant voices claiming the recession is here; it will hit like a hurricane; and it will be deep, long and difficult to get out of….

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This Economy is Ugly in its Bones – Part 2

Market permabulls die because they act like pigs, obsessed with pushing their way into the trough for any scrap of food that remains. For example, people continue to invest in stocks as they face-plant into the hog’s wallow again and again because they can only think of making money the way they have been used […]

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Why the Fed will fail to fight inflation until the recession beats it down

You cannot grow a turnip in a pile of dollar bills unless you let them rot first. Depending on the road the Fed takes, that could become the dollar’s highest value and the best the Fed can do to reduce food shortages. Whether the dollar decays depends, in good part, on whether the Fed chooses […]

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This Economy is Ugly in its Bones – Part 1

They say, “Beauty is only skin deep but ugly goes all the way to the bone.” Well, the last part of that certainly sums up this economy. It’s such a malformed monstrosity, you’ll wish it were extinct; and, at the rate this behemoth is now dying, it soon will be. You’ll have to look for […]

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US Economy Crashes Headlong into Recession!

Is it too extreme to say an annualized GDP growth number of minus 1.4% this quarter puts us in recession in this quarter, and is it too extreme to call that a “crash?” No, it is not in the least extreme, and I’ll tell you why, even though the standard definition of a recession is […]

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The Upbeat Downbeat on Housing and Commercial Real Estate

I mentioned in a recent article that the weird thing about this recession is that it is the only one in which personal income has gone up during a recession. That, of course, is because of government assistance, which is making it so we don’t have to feel the pain of a recession that the […]

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Recession Started Right on Time — Before Most Were Even Aware, So Beware!

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

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GDP Screams U.S. Recession Has Begun, but ‘Real GDP’ Is Far More Terrifying

U.S. first-quarter GDP plunged profoundly negative, but real GDP would have crashed even harder if not for bogus BEA data revisions. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. economy contracted 4.8% annually in the March quarter. Stocks soared on the news for two apparent reasons. First, many media outlets immediately reported the number as +4.8% […]

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A Week in the Life of a Topsy-Turvy Wildly Whirling World

Let’s review this past devilishly whacky week to see if we can divine the way the world is turning and why the markets are churning. It was 2019’s worst week in stocks and, well, just about everything economic all across this crazily spinning planet. Volatility lifted its head back out of the water like Loch […]

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