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The Path by Which We Got Here

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us […]

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Stocks are Falling into Fall

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

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Technically, This is Where I Think the S&P Will Find Strong Support and a Final Resting Place

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom. As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a […]

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Bullheaded Dave Portnoy Gets Pounded with His Own Hammer

Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market, daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $700 million he lost on Thursday, and the four-million he’s lost “in a f—ing blink” over the week is just a flesh wound, a mere scratch. […]

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Arrival of the Epocalypse and the 2020 Stock Market Meltdowns

I rarely mention anytime I’ve been interviewed. However, I was reviewing a casual conversation I just finished with one of my readers, Bob Unger, and I thought Bob’s questions led to a well-rounded expression of how, over the past two years, our economy got to the collapse we are in now, how predictable the Federal […]

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Stock Market’s Caged Bear about to Rattle Himself Loose!

I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.

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Elliott Wave Theory v. Stock Market Predictions by Economic Sense

Elliott Wave charts are the stock market’s horoscope. Some advocates of Elliott Wave Theory even believe the stock market only collapses due to EW alignments. Even the least faithful Elliott acolytes believe the market is eternally fated to match up over time with the probabilities the charts have revealed.

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Denial Dominates the Dummies

One of my reasons I started this website years ago was to counter all the denial that I saw in the mainstream media about how long and deep the problems from the Great Financial Crisis would be and about how we were failing in every way to resolve the greed, decay and especially faulty thinking […]

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US in Longterm Economic Decline

Measured by the common man (or common girl), we’re on the road to ruin. The US has been in decline for decades, but you can’t see that by looking at stocks. You can’t tell it from those who lie about the economy to make their living, but look at longterm real numbers, and you see […]

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No “V” in Reco_ery

These pictures are worth thousands of words:

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US Bankruptcies Busting Out to Match 2009 Peak Mean Trouble for Stock Market

Bloomberg reported this week that thirteen US companies (in the 50-million-plus size) filed for bankruptcy last week. That brought the total for the big boys and girls this year to 117, which matches the record peak for the first half of a year set in 2009. The slew of bankruptcies also set a record in […]

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Recession Started Right on Time — Before Most Were Even Aware, So Beware!

Before we get into the timing of the recession, here is a graph that is particularly telling of the Fed’s journey and is worth studying from left to right. Notice how chaotic and less effective our journey with FedMed has become, just as I wrote about in another article this week (“Zero Hedge Confirms Fed […]

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Zero Hedge Confirms Fed is Dead

It is always good to have a statement from the coroner when pronouncing death as I did on May 19, 2020. That is when I gave time of death and pronounced “The Fed is Dead.” You especially want the second opinion when you’re talking about Feddie Krueger, who has more extra lives than a cat […]

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The Jobs Report Misunderstanding in a Nutshell: NO V-Shaped Recovery in Sight

The first graph gives you a glimpse of the “huge jobs rebound” that shocked the stock market into spurting past its 200 DMA barriers because retail investors and algos aren’t looking past the headlines. The second graph below shows you what a tiny difference that made to the total number of jobs that were lost:

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