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The Market Damage History Shows You Can EXPECT from Fed Tapering

In an effort to prove the Fed’s tapering won’t matter, I recently saw one stock advisor claim that, when the Fed tapered its QE from late 2015 into 2016, “the stock market rallied 60% in an almost straight line higher.” Wow! Let’s take a look at that! Here is what the stock market actually did […]

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Shortages and Inflation Are Ripping the World’s Face Off

The evidence that inflation is ripping everyone’s face off is now widespread, and the situation is rapidly getting worse all over the world, making it harder for both US bonds and stocks to ignore it: The US stock market took it on the chin again Tuesday, plummeting on worries about sustained high inflation that pushed […]

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Stocks and Bonds Starting to Tussle

As I’ve written about extensively, we know the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner where it is now pressured to start tapering its quantitative easing earlier than it had been indicating. Now we are seeing signs that the bond market isn’t liking the news out of the last FOMC meeting, which hinted strongly […]

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Fed Caught in the Jaws of Stagflation: Times of Trouble for Stocks or Bonds or Both

Stagflation is showing up in data points and articles everywhere now. Delta worries, labor shortages and fading Washington stimulus — it’s enough to cast a chill on the U.S. economy this fall. A bevy of Wall Street forecasters chopped their targets for U.S. growth after a poor U.S. jobs report for August. The government on […]

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Is Inflation Cooling and Putting in a Top? Could it be that I was wrong?

To keep it simple: Nope! Not this time anyway. That is, however, what you hear from the wistful market makers who want to see last week’s CPI release as proof inflation was “transitory.” Let me disabuse you of that fantasy entirely.

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Stocks Wince Because the Stagflation Party Has Arrived

The past week has been a story of stagflation infecting the US economy while the stock market grimaces as Fed officials express the need to start a gradual pullout from economic stimulus much sooner or face a rapid pull-out a little later. Word on the Street has been that inflation is coming hot and heavy […]

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Protected: The Great Inflationary Train Wreck is Here

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Fed Falters, Stocks Stumble, Bonds Bounce

The Fed candidly admitted today’s soaring inflation is not what it had in mind, though it certainly is exactly what I’ve had in mind: At a news conference after the Fed’s statment [sic.] was released, Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects that inflation will be short-lived but acknowledged that it has run hotter than the […]

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Fed Falls for its Own Inflation Fakery

The S&P 500 failed a breakthrough on Thursday and tucked its head back below its 4200 ceiling again, where it has remained rangebound for weeks. Job news on the economic front that many analysts toasted as great could not lift sentiment out of the doldrums on Thursday, nor could it stop Netflix from making its […]

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Inflation Flying in Hotter than Ever!

All those economists who went along with the Fed’s inflation-is-temporary-and-going-per-plan narrative are stunned by the data they now see coming in. They shouldn’t be, as it was predicable. However, they will need to get bigger charts to make room for it. Notice where the last ten data points for the increase in inflationary surprises are […]

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Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market

I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ […]

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Protected: Stocks Stacked High in a Shipwrecked Economy

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Fed and Treasury Steer Their Unsinkable Ship toward Iceberg

This past week we got to observe Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the US stock market and the US bond market do everything I said they would do in their complicated shuffle of ships-and-icebergs: “I’m sure many helium-headed stock investors believe the lilly-livered Fed will turn tail and run from its goal of letting inflation […]

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