The Great Recession Blog

Sizzling inflation is not going away as drunken market revelers are hoping. This party bore, in fact, will be long outstaying her welcome. While the Fed once said it wanted some hot inflation on the scene, she arrived a lot hotter and has stayed a lot longer than Father Fed expected — now kind of […]

You cannot grow a turnip in a pile of dollar bills unless you let them rot first. Depending on the road the Fed takes, that could become the dollar’s highest value and the best the Fed can do to reduce food shortages. Whether the dollar decays depends, in good part, on whether the Fed chooses […]

So said Barron’s as the Dow dove almost 1,000 points on Friday and completed its fourth down week in a row. The Dow’s dive (981 points) was the worst since the Coronacrash in 2020. In two day’s time, it has fallen over 1300 points. Even before the big polar-bear plunge, stocks were seeing their worst […]

I’m making Part Three of my “Epocalypse Revisited” series available to all because it introduces where the series will go in examining the world’s transition to a global, digital cashless society, countering the notion that globalism just fell off a cliff and dispelling rumors about gold-backed rubles and the mighty yuan trouncing the dollar.

And I’m kind of glad to see it happen. Having seen the bursting of the bond bubble coming, I stepped out of the way financially (no money in stocks or bond funds) to watch the plunge from the sidelines during what has turned suddenly into an epic plunge in bond prices (rise in yields).

This past week was a stormy ride through the badlands of hell for bonds. Government bond prices took their worst cliff-fall since the Marshall Plan. The panic run of bonds over the edge was sparked by the fantasy belief that Russia might be retreating, bringing a rapid end to Putin’s invasion and the opposing sanctions.

Sometimes weeks happen in a day, and we seem to be living in such times. In my latest Patron Post I laid out how Putin’s War and the sanctions imposed by the West and other nations will cause a tectonic shift in the new world order. It’s already happening.

In 2015, I wrote about The Great Recession 2.0 that was coming upon us. I called it “The Epocalypse” to signify an economic apocalypse that would be epic in scale and that would begin a new epoch on earth — a turbulent time of global economic collapse. It described my overarching vision of our journey ahead.

For almost two years (starting in 2020 before you could see any consumer inflation at all), I have faithfully and consistently traced our trajectory toward scorching inflation that would cause a market disaster. Prior to that, inflationary burn-out was not an argument I ever made on this site (unlike some who perennially hyperventilate about hyperinflation).

Having written my own articles about how we are going into recession dead ahead, I want to back those up with the chorus of alarmed comments everywhere now about Powell is power-diving our economy straight into a recession.

This is my 777th post on this blog, although a couple of those are still in draft form. With this post I get to acknowledge something almost impossible. I struck out with my last post and knocked the ball out of the park. It was tempting to pull the post this morning and revise it, […]

In the first half of 2021, I bet my blog that the inflation I had been predicting would rise so hot through the year for so long that it would kill the stock market bull. It’s time to call the bet.