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“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.
Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.
This month the economic expansion brought to you by your Federal Reserve and by US government largess becomes the longest expansion in the history of the United States! That’s something, right? Something? Let’s take an honest look at what we now call great.
First, a decline in manufacturing, and then a slump in service industries, now a broad-spectrum inversion of the yield curve hitting its most critical metric this week, unemployment finally starting to rise again, a one-year relentless housing decline across most of the nation and the world, carmageddon pressing car dealers to offer big incentives once […]
The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]
“Asian markets rallied on Monday, extending their gains at the end of last week, following another strong US jobs report that reinforced confidence in the US economy and helped settle trade war nerves.” (Newsmax) So the majority of investors in Asia (and in the US) see the latest MEDIOCRE-AT-BEST jobs report as assurance that […]
Continue to Beware the Job Numbers (Is it the Bureau of Labor Statistics or Bureau of Lying Statistics?)
One reason I started my own economics blog was because of how tired I was of reading government-regurgitated half truths about the economy. Nothing has changed. As Newsmax and other publications report this week that July was a bumper month for lower-wage earners, I continue to have to sift for myself through all the glitter […]
The following is a guest editorial from one of The Great Recession Blog‘s faithful readers who prefers to simply go by his pseudonym “Auldenemy.” I wanted to share it here because it offers observations from the UK — the first nation to exit the EU — that closely parallel the immigration issues that fueled Donald Trump’s […]
Why Janet Ain’t Yellin’ “Higher Interest” Anymore: Jobs Worse than Expected and Far Worse than Reported
In the fall of 2015, I said the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates once in December then would not be able to fly any higher thereafter. The stock market would crash shortly after the Fed pulled up on the interest stick (which it did in what became the worst January in stock-market history), and then the Fed’s hopes […]
Even the Tweedledumbs of Wall Street are finally catching on to the fact that global economic collapse is happening all around them. Two weeks ago, they could have stood inside the building shown on the left with their nicely polished, rose-colored glasses and seen only signs of an improving housing market. Now enough shingles are falling on their […]
Current projections are dim. Challenging times loom large…. There’s little doubt there is a global jobs crisis,” said the World Bank’s senior director for jobs. “Disturbingly, we’re also seeing wage and income inequality widening.” (Yahoo News) The World Bank’s report, compiled by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), also stated that, despite a modest economic recovery in […]
This is a drum I’m going to beat for awhile: People need to stop listening to economists who are fixated on statistics like Gross Domestic Product or job gains as an indicator of where the economy is going. People need, instead, to read this blog if they want to know where the global economy is going. […]
President Obama is waving the white flag of amnesty for illegal immigrants taking jobs from U.S. workers. He deliberately entices cheap labor into the U.S. by promising that a path to citizenship will be coming soon. He waves that flag high enough to be certain that willing takers from countries south of the U.S. border will see it. […]
Today, I could not just put the jobs report data in the sidebar of economic news as usual because there was so much spin all over the place that I thought it all deserved an article introducing the way the jobs data news is spun.