Terms

What the essays are

The essays on this site are commentary on economic events and policy, written from the public record. They are not investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Several of them record forecasts that were wrong, which is one reason to treat all of them as argument rather than instruction.

Copyright

The text is original and is protected by copyright. Quotation with attribution and a link to the page is welcome. Republishing whole essays, with or without changes, is not.

Accuracy

Every reasonable effort is made to state facts correctly and to cite them. Where an error is found it is corrected in the page, with the date. Decisions taken on the basis of anything here are the reader’s own.

Changes

These terms may change; the version on this page applies. Last changed: 20 September 2026.