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Two Down, One to Go, and the Fed is Stuck: My most important economic predictions have come in rock solid

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]

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Housing Market Crash 2.0: The Jury is in for 2018-2019

As happened with the first housing market crash that began in 2007 but didn’t become widely recognized until mid-2008, the present housing crisis began exploding one story at a time last summer, and this blog was perhaps the first to state that summer’s change was the turning point from decades of ascent into a collapse […]

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Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Has Begun

A summer storm is gathering against the housing market all across the US. More than a year ago, I predicted the collapse of Housing Bubble 2.0 and then predicted as soon as the housing market collapse had begun that it would see temporary reprieve until the summer of 2018. Well, that reprieve has ended … 

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I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 2: The Real Estate Rollover

In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that […]

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List of Seven Troubles Assailing the US Economy as We Head into Summer

The following is not simply a list of negative risks to the economy but a list of of serious economic conditions that are already placing drought-like pressures on the overall economy. This list doesn’t include the long-term structural problems with the economy, such as its high debt burden, but just the forces that have risen against it this year.

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2017 Economic Forecast: Global Headwinds Look Like Mother of All Storms

Headwinds that are starting to assail deep structural flaws in the US and global economies form the basis for my 2017 economic forecast, which looks like an all-out economic crisis building throughout the world. Some of these headwinds are global; some more locally focused within the United States, but that which brings down the US economy wounds the world anyway. […]

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2017 Economic Headwinds: Housing Bubbles Popping up and Just Plain Popping Everywhere

As we enter 2017, housing bubbles are showing signs of bursting all over the world. I know I’ve been promising I would lay out the economic headwinds for 2017, but 2017’s headwinds are building so fast and furious that I’m having to break that promised article out into several articles, as I’m accumulating material faster than I have time to cover. […]

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Irrational Exuberance in US Stock Market Grasps at 20K for Dow

Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession?

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Federal Reserve Admits it Never Knew What it was Doing

The Federal Reserve is, at last, acknowledging at top levels that its economists are completely baffled, its recovery is failing, that the Fed cannot raise interest and may even have to heat up its stimulants … or we may end up with a permanently scarred and stagnant economy.

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U.S. Housing Market Nearing Its Great Recession Crash Point

Here’s a scary chart. Over the past three years, U.S. housing prices have risen as quickly as they did when the Federal Reserve was fueling the housing bubble with cheap and easy credit. That blew up in a housing market collapse in 2007-2009. Prices are also nearing the same peak price as their earlier crash […]

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Tiny Bubbles Make Me Warm All Over – European housing bubbles, student loan bubbles, even China bubbles

Actually, these bubbles aren’t tiny like the ones Don Ho sang about, and they don’t make me feel warm and fuzzy either. They’re great big bubbles that make me pop….

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Mortgage Foreclosure Fraud Settlement Is Payoff TO Bank of America, Wells Fargo & Chase

While the Obama’a administration touted the news of the largest class-action payoff since the $350 billion tobacco settlement, I say the payoffs by banks for their mortgage foreclosure fraud are the largest travesty of justice in history. The corks are popping and so are banker’s buttons over the feast they will celebrate tonight. See why […]

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Larry Summers Wants to Fix the Economy, but You Can’t Fix Stupid

Apparently, experts never learn. Larry Summers writes: “The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending.” (The Financial Post) What he really means is […]

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The Great Ponzi Scheme

The economy collapsed into a great recession because it was fundamentally flawed in the first place. The U.S. housing market, which underpinned the old economy, boomed because the government deregulated banks. The deregulation that began with Reagan widened under George Bush the First. It widened a little more under William Jefferson Clinton, and it broadened even further […]

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