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Headwinds that are starting to assail deep structural flaws in the US and global economies form the basis for my 2017 economic forecast, which looks like an all-out economic crisis building throughout the world. Some of these headwinds are global; some more locally focused within the United States, but that which brings down the US economy wounds the world anyway. […]
As we enter 2017, housing bubbles are showing signs of bursting all over the world. I know I’ve been promising I would lay out the economic headwinds for 2017, but 2017’s headwinds are building so fast and furious that I’m having to break that promised article out into several articles, as I’m accumulating material faster than I have time to cover. […]
Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession?
The Federal Reserve is, at last, acknowledging at top levels that its economists are completely baffled, its recovery is failing, that the Fed cannot raise interest and may even have to heat up its stimulants … or we may end up with a permanently scarred and stagnant economy.
The fate of oil companies and nations hangs in the balance of oil prices. Russia could go broke. Some think that’s by US design. Saudi Arabia could experience its Arab Spring if oil prices remain too low too long. And OPEC is dead. That’s the biggest news in this new century for oil. The House of Saud […]
And it isn’t because of their fancy math or their impenetrable jargon or even their arrogance. “We’re in a puzzling economy,” Shiller told Bloomberg TV. The kindly professor sounded genuinely befuddled, which left me wondering how an economist can be puzzled as to why the economy isn’t working when its flaws are more obvious than […]
Here’s a scary chart. Over the past three years, U.S. housing prices have risen as quickly as they did when the Federal Reserve was fueling the housing bubble with cheap and easy credit. That blew up in a housing market collapse in 2007-2009. Prices are also nearing the same peak price as their earlier crash […]
How long was it after Italy’s PM, Mario Monti announced that the euro crisis was “almost over” until it became a bigger crisis than ever? Within a month he found himself embroiled in the battle of his career against “Frau Nein,” Germany’s Chancellor Merkel, as the world watched the daily economic news articles out of […]
Here are the points you might want to take home with you from last week’s news. First, the stock market is not indicative of where the economy is going. For part of the week it was jumping up, and for part of the week, it was stomping down. Which part would indicate where the economy […]
When someone says we don’t need banking and Wall Street regulations because capitalism will correct itself, it’s like saying we don’t need a guard rail at the top of the cliff because the bottom will stop the car just fine. We have financial regulations because capitalism rights itself with a severe hand. Regulations are intended […]
I’m going to start posting a weekly recap of the economic news headlines. These headlines of news articles and their summaries come and go from the sidebar, so not everyone sees them on the particular day they tune in. This is a chance to make sure you didn’t miss any of the major economic news […]
Apparently, experts never learn. Larry Summers writes: “The central irony of financial crisis is that while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending.” (The Financial Post) What he really means is […]
The economy collapsed into a great recession because it was fundamentally flawed in the first place. The U.S. housing market, which underpinned the old economy, boomed because the government deregulated banks. The deregulation that began with Reagan widened under George Bush the First. It widened a little more under William Jefferson Clinton, and it broadened even further […]
News of the housing market collapse hit hard at the beginning of spring on March 23rd, 2011 because reporters had spent the winter months with their heads in the tropics so missed the winter chill. All winter the media experts reported the good news that their vaunted industry experts fed to them like peeled grapes in […]