The Great Recession Blog

I’ve said inflation will rise much higher than the Fed believes and will persist much longer and that it will eventually kill the latest stock market bull and the economy. If these inflation predictions prove wrong, I’ll stop writing my blog. Simple as that. That is how firmly I believe what I am saying and […]

The bond market is crazy weird right now. Inflation is soaring, and bond yields, which are supposed to price in inflation, are falling through the floor, causing many experts to scratch their heads as they try to figure out what on earth to make of it all:

In my last article, I broke apart the arguments that are popularly used against my prediction that inflation will spiral up hotter than the Fed thinks and last longer. In this article, I lay out arguments that are being raised by others and myself for why inflation will run hotter, reaching higher for longer.

This past week we saw the Fed make a significant change in its predictions about inflation, raising the rate it thinks we will have averaged at the end of a year by another one percent. That means, quite simply, the Fed was wrong about how high inflation would go up to the last meeting, and […]

Let’s look at what has continued to develop with inflation in the short time since my May articles on the subject because inflation is going to cause the Fed’s “Great Recovery” but burn up in its own incendiary blast. A rapid spread of fiery inflationary data lit up the landscape last week:

The S&P 500 failed a breakthrough on Thursday and tucked its head back below its 4200 ceiling again, where it has remained rangebound for weeks. Job news on the economic front that many analysts toasted as great could not lift sentiment out of the doldrums on Thursday, nor could it stop Netflix from making its […]

The most interesting thing about what the Fed is now doing is that it is illegal. The Fed’s argument that it is not monetizing the US debt fails now on its own terms. The Fed is buying treasuries for no purpose other than to directly finance the government’s escalating debt. Here’s the deal: 

All those economists who went along with the Fed’s inflation-is-temporary-and-going-per-plan narrative are stunned by the data they now see coming in. They shouldn’t be, as it was predicable. However, they will need to get bigger charts to make room for it. Notice where the last ten data points for the increase in inflationary surprises are […]

Stock markets got a jolt of the wrong kind on Wednesday when release of Fed minutes showed a little more talk of the Federal Reserve tapering its stimuli took place than what Fed Chair Jerome Powell let on earlier in the month after the FOMC meeting, which sets monetary policy. While the news was as […]

I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ […]

Is the inflation I’ve been writing about really all just transitory as Papa Powell claims it is? The Fed Head assures us he has this under control. Would that be just like Father Fed and friends had bank reserves under control right before the repo crisis blew up in late 2019? Or just like they […]

As I said in my recent Patron Post, We’ve now hit that critical juncture when price inflation is picking up momentum quickly…. Shortly after COVID assailed the world, I began to say, especially in my Patron Posts, that we had finally entered a period where, for the first time since I’ve been writing this blog, […]