The Great Recession Blog

This past week was a stormy ride through the badlands of hell for bonds. Government bond prices took their worst cliff-fall since the Marshall Plan. The panic run of bonds over the edge was sparked by the fantasy belief that Russia might be retreating, bringing a rapid end to Putin’s invasion and the opposing sanctions.

Sometimes weeks happen in a day, and we seem to be living in such times. In my latest Patron Post I laid out how Putin’s War and the sanctions imposed by the West and other nations will cause a tectonic shift in the new world order. It’s already happening.

In 2015, I wrote about The Great Recession 2.0 that was coming upon us. I called it “The Epocalypse” to signify an economic apocalypse that would be epic in scale and that would begin a new epoch on earth — a turbulent time of global economic collapse. It described my overarching vision of our journey ahead.

For almost two years (starting in 2020 before you could see any consumer inflation at all), I have faithfully and consistently traced our trajectory toward scorching inflation that would cause a market disaster. Prior to that, inflationary burn-out was not an argument I ever made on this site (unlike some who perennially hyperventilate about hyperinflation).

Having written my own articles about how we are going into recession dead ahead, I want to back those up with the chorus of alarmed comments everywhere now about Powell is power-diving our economy straight into a recession.

This is my 777th post on this blog, although a couple of those are still in draft form. With this post I get to acknowledge something almost impossible. I struck out with my last post and knocked the ball out of the park. It was tempting to pull the post this morning and revise it, […]

In the first half of 2021, I bet my blog that the inflation I had been predicting would rise so hot through the year for so long that it would kill the stock market bull. It’s time to call the bet.

Let me begin to describe the scale of the economic collapse that I believe has reasonable likelihood of happening without going all apocalyptic, as I could easily do if I started calling into mind geo-political crises, climate troubles and all that stuff. Let’s just stay with historic examples and forces in play right now and […]

There is no safety, as in times past when the Fed was draining money out of the economy and could just flip back to pumping money in, because the Fed is running the outflow pump fast and furious, and the Fed has no option for reversing the pump or even just stopping it this time […]

Forget bond pricing as a way of gauging what inflation is going to do. The Fed is still buying the lion’s share of the bond market. So, while bonds have begun pricing in inflation, they have a lot more to price in over the next couple of months as the Fed continues to relinquish control […]

The Everything Bubble is bursting, and the Fed has barely even begun its war on inflation. Many top stocks are already in their own bear markets. Nvidia, way off its game, has lost 25% of its value from its last high score. The ridiculously skyrocketing Tesla has plunged back toward earth’s gravity on a trajectory […]

The Fed has a solid track record of killing its children and eating them, which is to say destroying all of recoveries it worked so hard to originally nurture. This it does by how it shifts into tightening mode with a jolt, almost always taking down the stock market with it. This time is no […]