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The Drip, Drip, Drip of Recession

News of significant recessionary drops in the US became as relentless this past week as the ping, ping, pang of drips from a leaking ceiling hitting pans in the New York Stock Exchange. I’ve been saying you would hear the sounds of recession everywhere as soon as the second-quarter earnings reporting season began this summer. […]

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Cleaning up after the China Trade Summit Looks Exactly Like I Said it Would

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

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Beware the Lies you Read. Beware the Market Mania.

I want to comment on an article featured prominently all weekend on Zero Hedge because it is packed full of so many lies or distortions that I don’t know what it was even doing there. As you know, I read Zero Hedge a lot and appreciate economic perspectives they give, so I’ll give them the […]

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Is the Fed Dead?

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

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A Crash Course on the Everything Crash that is Coming

A crash course by Jeffry Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth on the cognitive dissonance in economic thinking, the fact-free euphoria in the stock market, bonds busting out toward a breaking point, the falsehood in GDP versus real GDP, and the guaranteed crash trajectory of the US national debt — all the same stuff I’ve been […]

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The Zombie Epocalypse: A River of Denial Floods Markets Everywhere

The highest summit of irrational exuberance ever, which is not even seen by those engaging in it, establishes the perfect peak for the greatest global economic collapse ever. Some days the level of denial in the stock market twists my head into a knot — not because I am surprised at lemmings jumping over a cliff […]

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US GDP Not All it was Cracked up to be

You may be worried my prediction that a recession will start sometime this summer is not looking too good. So was I after first-quarter corporate earnings started coming in better than what economists expected. Except that barely “beating expectations” is kind of pathetic when expectations are dumbed down as far as they were.

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Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

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Two Down, One to Go, and the Fed is Stuck: My most important economic predictions have come in rock solid

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]

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A Week in the Life of a Topsy-Turvy Wildly Whirling World

Let’s review this past devilishly whacky week to see if we can divine the way the world is turning and why the markets are churning. It was 2019’s worst week in stocks and, well, just about everything economic all across this crazily spinning planet. Volatility lifted its head back out of the water like Loch […]

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Housing Market Crash 2.0: The Jury is in for 2018-2019

As happened with the first housing market crash that began in 2007 but didn’t become widely recognized until mid-2008, the present housing crisis began exploding one story at a time last summer, and this blog was perhaps the first to state that summer’s change was the turning point from decades of ascent into a collapse […]

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The Great Recovery Rewind: How the Federal Reserve’s Balance-Sheet Unwind is Unwinding Recovery

We are in the end time of an unprecedented era of financial expansion — the greatest expansion of the world’s money supply ever attempted, expansion of the Federal Reserve’s vast and unchecked powers far beyond what the Fed could do before the financial crisis, and super-sizing expansion of banks that were already way too big […]

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Fed Med is Dead: How We Went from Fake Recovery to Freefall

Until you got to this tax and spending deal a year ago, it was one of the most hated bull markets. The markets steadily climbed one wall of worry after another, and the problem was that the economic data did not confirm it. –Bloomberg That’s right. The market was not rising for the past ten […]

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