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The End is Here. I Bet My Blog and Lost and Won

I bet my blog on a stock market crash in the early summer and on global economic cracks large enough by summer that no one could reasonably deny the economy is in a serious downturn. I have both lost and won that bet as I will lay out here.

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Icarus Flies, but FAANGs Fall from the Gaping Maw of US Stock Market – And My Blog is Still Here

As we pass from early summer into late summer today, stocks on all the major indices open the day on the slide. The “Tech Wreck,” as it is being called, has been noted by many, as I’ll detail here. That is in spite of the fact that the last of the great FAANGS just reported […]

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Death of the Great Recovery Part 3: Housing Collapse 2.0 Has Begun

It’s simple math — an equal and opposite reaction. After a long spell of QE took mortgage interest down to the lowest it has ever been, a long spell of QT (quantitative tightening) is going to take it back up again. That’s why I forecasted another housing collapse with confidence last year: Rising mortgage rates will […]

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Death of the Great Recovery Part 2: The Second Coming of Carmageddon

Like the disintegration of the formerly charmed stock market, the return of Carmageddon is right on schedule. I had stated early last year that one of the first cracks in our economy to become evident would be the crash of the car industry. That crack materialized as promised, but then Hurricanes Harvey and Irma showed […]

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The Dumb Money is Helping the Smart Money Exit the Stock Market

Bloomberg this week ran a story telling us how the smart money gets out of the stock market when it hits its all-time peak and how the dumb money helps the smart money out. Only they didn’t know that was what they were writing. It typically happens this way:

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Epochal Stock Market Flash Crash Reconnects Stocks and Bonds, Portends End of Fake Recovery

It took sixteen months to build the exceptionally steep Trump Rally, and just one week to eliminate a quarter of it. While I wouldn’t call that jolting reversal a stock-market crash in the ordinary sense, the largest one-day point fall in the history of the market (by far) certainly marks a massive change in market conditions. […]

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Groundhog Day Drives Stock Market 666 Points Below Ground: What that says about the frosty season ahead

I’m pretty sure the nation’s favorite groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, knows more about the weather than he does about markets, and I’m not all that sure he knows anything about the weather! In fact, I don’t understand the underground methods of this rodent resident of Gobbler’s Knob at all. It would seem to me that sighting […]

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How and Why My 2018 Economic Predictions Could be Way off

My 2018 economic predictions in my last article laid out how I believe the stock market’s (and general economy’s) natural collapse will time out if no surprise event (black swan) knocks the wind out of it before it fails due to its own diminishing monetary lift from the Trump Tax Cuts. These predictions are based […]

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I Bet My Blog on a 2018 Economic Collapse — 2018 Economic Predictions

My 2018 economic predictions follow through on the accurate predictions I made in 2017. In my last article, I stated that I had bet my blog the stock market would crash by January 2018. That was my thinking back then based on where Obama had been taking us. In fact, however, when I went back […]

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The Ghosts of Crashes Past, Recent, and Future as they Appeared on this Blog

It’s not boasting to state plainly that you were right if you are equally direct about your errors. I have until now rightly predicted all of the stock market’s major downturns, starting with the one in 2007 that gave us the Great Recession. The first of those led to the writing of this blog. The […]

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I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 2: The Real Estate Rollover

In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that […]

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I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 1 : Carmageddon and the Retail Apocalypse

Summer closed in a whirlwind of weather chaos for the United States and its territories. At the start of the summer, the US economy began to show signs that it was flying apart. The two most obvious were the big blowouts in the auto industry and in retail

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Team Trump Transmogrifies into the Swamp Thing

The establishment has eaten the White House, and yet I continue to read supporters of President Trump who desperately hold to the delusion that Trump  is playing a game of 4-D chess — a game so advanced that no one else on the face of the earth can understand that Trump is winning. Trump’s masterful […]

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Wars and Rumors of Wars: Fire and Fury Signifying Nothing? Stock market caught in the crossfire

August is a sultry month for stocks as markets thin out during the dog days of summer. Everyone leaves investing for a break from the heat. Statistically, August is the worst month for overall stock performance, while September delivers more of whatever August sends its way or brings its own dark surprises. After that, October […]

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