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The Beginning of the End: Great Recession 2.0 is Obscured but Here!

The Great Recession never ended. I say that because the deep economic flaws that caused it were never corrected. All recovery efforts since merely clouded our eyes to the problems growing larger around us, even making them worse, and now we are going back into the belly of the Great Recession.

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Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest: Repo Rates through the Roof!

Well, that didn’t take long! Four days ago, I stated the following in an article titled “Why are Bonds Going for Broke?“: Central banks are losing control, and are admitting they don’t even understand what is happening.

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How’s That Recession Coming, Dave?

Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.

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Bubble Bubba Isn’t Doing Fine Anymore

Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]

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And That’s How it All Came Down

On June 12, I wrote, The market is moving into waiting mode as the Fed’s next FOMC meeting where they have the opportunity to live up to the rate-cutting hopes they’ve raised come next week. As it does, it is forming that topping pattern that keeps repeating at this level. “Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine“ […]

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The Drip, Drip, Drip of Recession

News of significant recessionary drops in the US became as relentless this past week as the ping, ping, pang of drips from a leaking ceiling hitting pans in the New York Stock Exchange. I’ve been saying you would hear the sounds of recession everywhere as soon as the second-quarter earnings reporting season began this summer. […]

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Chairman Powell Moves toward my Recession Prediction and Helps Trump Trade War

The bears that are gathering will soon enough be picking flesh off the sun-bleached bones of this market. Even the Fed Chair, who usually does all he can can to avoid dismal pictures and to sound optimistic, is finally talking downcast about the US economy.

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Cleaning up after the China Trade Summit Looks Exactly Like I Said it Would

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

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Is the Fed Dead?

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

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You Know Things are Falling When…

…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.

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Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that […]

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Two Down, One to Go, and the Fed is Stuck: My most important economic predictions have come in rock solid

Two of my biggest and longest-term predictions for 2018 and 2019 proved resoundingly true this week, and my sole prediction for this year — a prediction of recession bolder than anyone else’s — moved a big step closer to coming true. Prediction #1: The Fed will prove to have no exit plan from its recovery […]

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More Evidence that the Bears Have it Dead Right

In my last article, “The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions,” I laid out my first prediction for 2019 — a recession by summer. I don’t want the following revelations and facts that I have since come across to get lost in comments I recently posted to that article, so […]

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