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Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge, or is the market reaching escape velocity from the relentless gravity of the Great Recession?
In May, I wrote an article titled “The OPEC Epoch is Over,” which pronounced OPEC officially dead and predicted oil prices would plunge again. So far, I’ve been wrong about a second perilous plunge in oil prices. However, even as market heavyweights herald this week’s OPEC meeting for pumping up oil prices, a few voices join this lightweight in […]
Oil today plunged quickly below $40 per barrel, taking oil prices down more than 20% from their high a little over a month ago. That officially defines a bear market in oil. As of today, oil has also moved below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. July has again turned out to be a huge disappointment for oil producers […]
The crude oil price rally has been completely crushed, though I’ll admit I was wrong when I predicted crude oil prices would plummet in March or April as the perfect storm developed against oil prices. Instead, they rallied. In spite of that, I continued to believe my error was in timing and not in fact […]
Here are several quick looks at the oil supply glut and whether it is likely to worsen, hold the same, or improve during the summer of 2016. First, a picture of the cost of the oil supply glut This snapshot of a major oil company epitomizes what is happening in most oil companies, big […]
The fate of oil companies and nations hangs in the balance of oil prices. Russia could go broke. Some think that’s by US design. Saudi Arabia could experience its Arab Spring if oil prices remain too low too long. And OPEC is dead. That’s the biggest news in this new century for oil. The House of Saud […]
The question begs for conspiracy theories to satisfy it, but one might more aptly say that central banks beg for conspiracy theories to explain them, since they operate in the shadows while being given charge of all the financial systems of all the world’s greatest economies. Central bankers have the unchaperoned power to create the greatest fortunes ever known […]
As predicted relentlessly here, the scuttled meeting in Doha to limit oil production broke up with no agreement at all. The meeting foundered like a tanker snagged in the dessert sands because of the singular obvious factor that should have sunken all hope weeks ago but did not: Saudi Arabia said, “No deal without Iran.” Doha disaster predictable yet not the disaster that was […]
Saudi Arabia has moved beyond its original statement that it will only support a production freeze if “other major producing nations” sign on to the agreement. It has now clarified what I believed to be intended by its initial caveat all along, stating that it will only sign on to a production freeze if ALL nations sign […]
The perfect storm I predicted against the price of oil in the Ides of March has not fully developed, but all the forces I spoke of are continuing to build. The balmy days that prevailed for oil prices in early March have gone away, replaced by a downdraft that is once again suppressing prices more and more since their peak in mid-March. […]
While some business / economic publications, like NewsMax are saying that, “Oil is pulling away from the market’s biggest storm in seven years,” I say, “Don’t believe it.” Not for one second. The real storm begins near the middle of March.
The black swans are circling like vultures now. Dark economic events seem to be flying in out of nowhere for those who have vision to see them. Even dovish New York Fed President William Dudley, who cannot tell the difference between money and hot air, sees a lot of black in the skies now and says that he […]
Last week, I wrote that the day would come soon when oil prices would take another nasty dive because there is nowhere left to store oil, causing the spot price for immediately delivery to dive toward the zero bound. This week we see how close that day is as oil continues to be oversupplied by […]
Only about a week ago, one reader scoffed at me because oil prices had stabilized (or so the market theory d’jour went). The big stock market crash I had predicted had run its course, he thought. The Saudis and Russia had entered a deal on oil, and Iran was coming on board; the stock market […]