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Federal Reserve Confesses Sole Responsibility for All Recessions

In a surprisingly candid admission, two former Federal Reserve chairs have stated that the Federal Reserve alone is responsible for creating all recessions in the United States. First, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said that Expansions don’t die of old age. They get murdered. MarketWatch To clarify this statement, former Chair Janet Yellen placed the […]

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BOND PRIMER: Does Inverted Yield Curve Indicate Recession?

This brief post presents simple historic proof that inverted yield curves predict recessions. I am posting it in anticipation of an article this week in which the Federal Reserve surprisingly admits it is solely responsible for creating recessions. Does an inverted yield curves predict a recession? An inverted yield curve has happened shortly before every US […]

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BOND PRIMER: What is an inverted yield curve and what does it mean?

This is a simple explanation of an inverted yield curve along with a few basic definitions of US treasury securities — bills, notes and bonds. I am posting it in anticipation of an article this week in which the Fed surprisingly admits it is solely responsible for creating recessions. It is for the sake of […]

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Protected: 2019 Economic Headwinds Look Like Storm of the Century

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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The Roar of Stupidity is Now Deafening

The world is descending into intellectual chaos. Read El Erian in the following linked article, and then come and back tell me we have not moved into madness: El-Erian: 1000-Point Swings In The Dow Are The “New Reality” There is clearly a tooth missing on one of the gears in El-Erian’s brain. How do you […]

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Is it the Fed or is it the Trump? Here’s the Truth.

President Trump wants to blame the Fed — Jerome Powell in particular — for the stock market’s nasty action this fall. If things keep going this badly, you can be sure the Fed chief will want to blame Trump and his treasurer Munchkin for recent tweets that killed Santa Claus and for trade wars and […]

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Fed Med is Dead: How We Went from Fake Recovery to Freefall

Until you got to this tax and spending deal a year ago, it was one of the most hated bull markets. The markets steadily climbed one wall of worry after another, and the problem was that the economic data did not confirm it. –Bloomberg That’s right. The market was not rising for the past ten […]

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Something Wicked This Way Comes. Is it the Fed? Is it the President? Is it the Treasurer?

Make no mistake about it, there’s real fear and panic out there as markets are dislocating to the downside…. But note that on many charts we are showing 2008/2009 like conditions, something that is entirely inconsistent with the earnings and economic data we’re still seeing: It’s almost as if markets are pricing in a financial […]

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This Bear Ain’t Playin’ Games with the Bulls (The Stock Market Crash is in. Cash is in now, too!)

This ain’t no ballgame. This bear has shown up for blood, not sport. The Nasdaq intraday hit the 20% down mark that is widely regarded as qualifying for a change from a bull market to a bear market. A close at that level would have made it as official as a declaration of a bear […]

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Trump’s Mobsters in the White House Deflect Blame for Falling Market

Before Trump was even inaugurated, I said he was clearly draining the swamp directly into the White House. That was obvious as soon as he nominated a Goldman-Sachs roster to fill all the financial cabinet positions. Some wishfully said he was playing 4-D chess by keeping his enemies close. I called baloney. He was simply […]

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Stock Market’s Stars are Crossed for an Ursa Major Upset

The Big Bear is back. Ursa Major is in the house of the rising sun, and Taurus is in the house of the setting sun. Those are bad signs for investors who are now daily diving into their horoscopes. The market is pouring out of an inverted Big Dipper, otherwise known as the Big Bear […]

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Fabulously Fake Facts – “G” in GDP Stands for “Gullibility”

While glowing presidential proclamations about US GDP growth last week did nothing to prevent the stock market from rushing headlong over the cusps of a FAANG stock ledge, the market is taking a breather today. So, let’s take a breather and go back and look at why that GDP report had no bite.

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Housing Market Collapse 2.0 Accelerates Rapidly!

Just ten days ago, your Lone Ranger here laid out why one should see the barely beginning downturn of the housing market in Seattle as the bellwether for a national housing market bust. Naturally a snowflake or two of criticism landed on my nose to say I knew nothing about real estate. That being the […]

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Nation’s Most Bullish Day for Stocks Goes … Well, Mediocre

Even the best day of the year for stocks in the United States struggled to pull this market into better shape. While summer is a down period overall for stocks, July 2nd holds the position of being historically the most bullish day of all for the S&P 500. Why? The S&P 500 shows an average return […]

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