Archive for November, 2021

Not even close to transitory. After giving its turkey advice for Thanksgiving, the Federal Reserve finally gave up completely on the “Inflation is transitory” chorus it has been singing all year. Chairman Powell of the People’s Bank of Amerika stated outright today that inflation is not transitory after all, confirming what I have been preaching […]

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Unnamed White House staffer, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

The US central bank has apparently taken on a new mandate — being your dietary coach, advising Americans to fight the inflation it helped ignite by eating tofurkey and other soy-based foods for Thanksgiving, instead of turkey.

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The Electric Kool Aid Stock Market Crash Test

Posted November 21, 2021 By David Haggith
Air liner dead in the water

How overpriced, overbought and out of touch with the overall economy is the US stock market? Let me tell you in pictures. First, let’s start with a comparison of stock prices to the US economy as it stands today: Based on Warren Buffet’s favorite indicator of stock-market over-or-under-valuation, the market is far more overvalued than […]

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We have just entered those days of heady inflation that I have said will kill the stock market and bond funds. There is a tipping point at which inflation and the interest changes that respond to inflation matter, but it has never been a clearly defined point.

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One or two dimwits told me I was stupid to be thinking inflation would be the driving force of 2021 due to shortages and Fed money printing. The cockiest one even assured me his second-grade education in economics said inflation wasn’t even happening, yet inflation has relentlessly surged higher every month to finally now hit […]

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The Big Blindspot that Will Bite Bonds and Stocks in the Butt

Posted November 8, 2021 By David Haggith
Wheelbarrow full of money outside of Fiest Bank in Germany Weimar Republic

The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the ‘processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…. When bond markets sneeze… equity markets can end up on ventilators, dragging confidence down in their wake. Bill […]

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Mers coronavirus. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health (NIH) / Public domain

A little virus and a big set of misguided responses to it are sinking the unsinkable world. While third-quarter GDP growth came in a little higher than the Atlanta Fed was predicting, it still came in below the consensus of economists, which averaged at 2.6%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis came out with 2.0%:

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