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Protected: Economic Predictions for 2022

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Big Reveal Coming

It’s all about inflation, but it’s not about today’s news on inflation. The big news on inflation today is not even that it hit 6.8% — its highest level since 1983 — but that the rate of climb for inflation is the steepest it has been in seventy years. However, even that is not the […]

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Protected: The Electric Kool Aid Stock Market Crash Test

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The Stock Market Does Have a Tipping Point Where Bond Interest and Inflation Both Matter A LOT

We have just entered those days of heady inflation that I have said will kill the stock market and bond funds. There is a tipping point at which inflation and the interest changes that respond to inflation matter, but it has never been a clearly defined point.

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The Inflation Death Spiral has Begun: Inflation Hits Stocks, Bonds and Government Like a Bomb Cyclone

One or two dimwits told me I was stupid to be thinking inflation would be the driving force of 2021 due to shortages and Fed money printing. The cockiest one even assured me his second-grade education in economics said inflation wasn’t even happening, yet inflation has relentlessly surged higher every month to finally now hit […]

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The Big Blindspot that Will Bite Bonds and Stocks in the Butt

The Fed finally begun its cautious taper and the market did not immediately self-destruct… but the consequences of 14 years of central bank experimentation, regulatory overkill and the ‘processification’ of markets will have consequences… they may be bleak…. When bond markets sneeze… equity markets can end up on ventilators, dragging confidence down in their wake. Bill […]

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The Market Damage History Shows You Can EXPECT from Fed Tapering

In an effort to prove the Fed’s tapering won’t matter, I recently saw one stock advisor claim that, when the Fed tapered its QE from late 2015 into 2016, “the stock market rallied 60% in an almost straight line higher.” Wow! Let’s take a look at that! Here is what the stock market actually did […]

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Shortages and Inflation Are Ripping the World’s Face Off

The evidence that inflation is ripping everyone’s face off is now widespread, and the situation is rapidly getting worse all over the world, making it harder for both US bonds and stocks to ignore it: The US stock market took it on the chin again Tuesday, plummeting on worries about sustained high inflation that pushed […]

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Stocks and Bonds Starting to Tussle

As I’ve written about extensively, we know the Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner where it is now pressured to start tapering its quantitative easing earlier than it had been indicating. Now we are seeing signs that the bond market isn’t liking the news out of the last FOMC meeting, which hinted strongly […]

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Fed Caught in the Jaws of Stagflation: Times of Trouble for Stocks or Bonds or Both

Stagflation is showing up in data points and articles everywhere now. Delta worries, labor shortages and fading Washington stimulus — it’s enough to cast a chill on the U.S. economy this fall. A bevy of Wall Street forecasters chopped their targets for U.S. growth after a poor U.S. jobs report for August. The government on […]

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Is Inflation Cooling and Putting in a Top? Could it be that I was wrong?

To keep it simple: Nope! Not this time anyway. That is, however, what you hear from the wistful market makers who want to see last week’s CPI release as proof inflation was “transitory.” Let me disabuse you of that fantasy entirely.

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