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The Great Inflationary Train Wreck is Here
I’ve bet my blog on my prediction that inflation will crash both the economy and the stock market, saying I believe with enough conviction that I’ll stop writing on economics if it fails to happen. Why? Because I wouldn’t want to be one of those doom-porn writers who keeps going even after major misses, and […]
Fed Falters, Stocks Stumble, Bonds Bounce
The Fed candidly admitted today’s soaring inflation is not what it had in mind, though it certainly is exactly what I’ve had in mind: At a news conference after the Fed’s statment [sic.] was released, Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects that inflation will be short-lived but acknowledged that it has run hotter than the […]
Fed Falls for its Own Inflation Fakery
The S&P 500 failed a breakthrough on Thursday and tucked its head back below its 4200 ceiling again, where it has remained rangebound for weeks. Job news on the economic front that many analysts toasted as great could not lift sentiment out of the doldrums on Thursday, nor could it stop Netflix from making its […]
Inflation Flying in Hotter than Ever!
All those economists who went along with the Fed’s inflation-is-temporary-and-going-per-plan narrative are stunned by the data they now see coming in. They shouldn’t be, as it was predicable. However, they will need to get bigger charts to make room for it. Notice where the last ten data points for the increase in inflationary surprises are […]
Inflation Will Kill This Stock Market
I’m not saying nothing else can do the job before inflation fully gets here, just that the kind of inflation I’ve been writing about certainly will do it if nothing else does. That’s what terrifies the market and for a very good reason that may not be the first one that comes to some investors’ […]
Stocks Stacked High in a Shipwrecked Economy
Traders are pricing stocks to levels that make sense only if sailing an open sea of glassy calm as far as the eye can see. Priced beyond perfection as though we are gliding through the economy of a gilded age, the market’s rosy optimism is causing both Bloomberg and Bill Maher (and others) to ask […]
Fed and Treasury Steer Their Unsinkable Ship toward Iceberg
This past week we got to observe Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the US stock market and the US bond market do everything I said they would do in their complicated shuffle of ships-and-icebergs: “I’m sure many helium-headed stock investors believe the lilly-livered Fed will turn tail and run from its goal of letting inflation […]
Stock Market as Forward Looking as a Caboose
“Remember that the market is a forward-looking indicator. Ideally, it is pricing in the gains of the next six to 18 months.” (Seeking Alpha) Famous last words again and again. That sunny advice about today’s overpriced market was repeated again about a week ago. It is the same excuse that was routinely deployed at the […]
The Coming Inflation Conflagration
As I noted in an earlier Patron Post we are entering the first period since I began writing this blog years ago when I am actually concerned about inflation blowing up. In my last article about all the variables creating insanity in the housing market, I noted that inflation (or expectation of it) has started […]
Even Moron Market Mania
Couldn’t resist the pun after last week’s article “More on Market Mania” as it just keeps getting more ridiculous. Here for Patrons only is more on the market’s maniacal climb. Speculative Mania Goes “Up In Smoke†This past week was quite interesting as the “Reddit WallStreetBets†bunch turned their sites away from Gamestop to “Cannabis.†[…]
DON’T-STOP GAME STOCKS: Bankrupt Companies As Trillion-Dollar Chips in the Wall Street Casino
The faint heartbeat of this week’s jobs report did not keep the stock market from trying to scramble back up to its record heights. The surging and plunging and scrambling for cash and closing of gates at Robinhood did not stop the rise either. Robinhood became a broken arrow Let’s just say market mania rose […]
Nothing to See Here, Folks. I Mean, Literally, NOTHING.
Every couple of months, I bring us up to date on how the economy has changed, and the last couple of month have taken us predictably back into economic decline, following a summer burst of subnormal passableness that never got us out of the crater we fell into last spring.