The Great Recession Blog

The following article comes with a surprising revelation — possibly an alarming revelation — at the end. Something big is happening at the Fed — the largest movement of “cash” in history. I don’t know what to make of it, because the Fed has been completely silent about it, and the mainstream financial press has […]

We are now seeing the most euphoric stock stock market in history — a market as precariously perched as the one I laid out last January. “Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels” says one headline. There is another way of putting it: extreme euphoria. Zero Hedge

Election night and the day that followed became one more exhibition of irrational exuberance in the stock market and an omen of chaos to come. Early on election night in the US, stock futures soared as soon as it looked to many investors like Donald Trump would have a clear claim to a second term […]

Investors will start to realize the economy is not recovering in August, I said. As result, the stock market will break sometime in August or September, I said. It will likely experience an even bigger plunge as an October surprise, I said, because something about October loves a Halloweenish surprise for stocks.

After saying the stock market’s rally today could best be explained by “the removal of uncertainty,” Jim Cramer got a hyuuge surprise out of a corner from which he least expected it. The surprise that moved the market was not, however, removal of the particular uncertainty that Cramer was talking about. It was removal of […]

Since I’ve spent a fair amount of time on the US stock market of late, I won’t say much. Just taking a moment to note September just finished its fourth consecutive week down (final full week), maintaining a downtrend that began as we rolled over from August into September, setting up an October surprise.

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us […]

All three major stock-market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week.

This graph shows where my mind goes every time I ask myself how far the S&P 500 is likely to fall before it finds a solid bottom. As you know, I don’t make predictions based on charts, but clearly there is intense convergence of longterm support around the 2,000 level and strong indication of a […]

Dave Portnoy is shaking his fist at the stock market, daring it to give him a bigger pounding than it already has — telling his gambling fans how the $700 million he lost on Thursday, and the four-million he’s lost “in a f—ing blink” over the week is just a flesh wound, a mere scratch. […]

I rarely mention anytime I’ve been interviewed. However, I was reviewing a casual conversation I just finished with one of my readers, Bob Unger, and I thought Bob’s questions led to a well-rounded expression of how, over the past two years, our economy got to the collapse we are in now, how predictable the Federal […]

I’ve been saying the stock market will take a turn for the worst sometime between mid-August and October. Numerous market metrics now show a market that looks ready to turn over. The bear may soon be back in charge.