So, I did say my “worst-case scenario” did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my “best-case scenario” and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July?
President Trump stated on Wednesday that a war with Iran will be fast and easy. Let’s hope that means faster and easier than the trade war with China has turned out to be, now a year long and getting worse.
All is well in the wonderful Land of Oz. Munchkin had that same dopy-faced, thumbs-up look when he was drifting on his plastic bubble bed in a languid pool back in December somewhere in the Carribbean after assuring the world via Treasurer’s tweet that he had called all the major US banks to make sure they […]
The S&P 500 is up 18% and powering toward its biggest first half since 1997. For bulls, things are great. Will they get any better? To a handful of cross-asset strategists who turned skeptical on stocks before this week’s manic sessions, that’s becoming the most pressing question. Increasingly, their answer is: not likely. However spectacular the real-time […]
The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]
“The perfect storm” has become a cliché, but the current setup for a 2019 recession has become so text-book perfect in alignment of the three most critical recessionary forces that I have to use it. Let me start by noting that a stock market that rallies because the news is bad — as happened a little over […]
![Knowing how to invest in oil means not having barrel of it leaking around your home. | By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons](https://i0.wp.com/thegreatrecession.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/OilBarrels.jpg?fit=150%2C113&ssl=1)
These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]
A bump from Donald Trump’s thump on Mexico’s head is causing the US stock market to swell this week. Trump tariffied the market last week because his new threat against all things Mexican seemed to say Trump might use tariffs as leverage to get anything he wants. Agent Orange apparently got what he wanted — […]
I just posted my latest Premium Post on Patreon.com. Patrons can read it on my Patreon page if they are a supporter at the $5 per month level or higher. As soon as your payment processes at the start of each month, you will be given access to any Premium Posts that come out that […]
This Premium Post continues where my last one, “Teasing out the Fed’s Big Plan for our Future,” left off. As a refresher, I noted in that article 1) the Fed Chair’s concern that the Fed is losing public trust and 2) that its monetary policy independence (its monopoly on money) is at risk along with […]
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