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At long last the tyranny of the global financial elite has been slammed good and hard…. The British people have rejected the arrogant rule of the EU superstate and the tyranny of its unelected courts, commissions and bureaucratic overlords…. Smaller government—–at least in geography—–is being given another chance. And that’s a very good thing because more localized […]
This year, I predicted that Greece would default on its debt, that it would strike a deal with its european counterparts in the Eurozone, that the deal would lead to public riots later in the year, which would lead to Greece again facing a Grexit in the fall, and that Greece would ultimately leave the euro this […]
The deal force-fed to Greece by the Germans guarantees Grexit 2015. Look at all that this deal has embedded into its terms, and you’ll see how a Grexit is now assured. This new eurodeal creates all the chemistry necessary for an explosion. Yet, the stock markets rose today because people are excited that, at last, a deal is […]
I start the year by ending my blog in fulfillment of my bet, so this will be my last post, even as I lay out my 2015 economic predictions, which I think will be my best to date. Last year, I predicted that the economy would become particularly volatile in the fall — especially the U.S. stock […]
Yes, the economic headwinds all over the world are growing, and a subconscious awareness is spreading that there is no recovery. It is now starting to look like the stock market is banging its head on a glass ceiling. Consider just the events of this past week: Stock market collapse seen in second correction? What? […]
A global economic storm has arrived. It’s not blowing full force, but here is what it looks like in a bullet list of recent economic changes: Japan’s economy is in rapid recession, dropping 7% with industrial production tumbling 3.3% year-on-year. U.K. inflation has plunged to its lowest in five years, edging up fears of a deflationary spiral, […]
As I consider my 2013 Economic Predictions, I have to take a lesson from my “Economic Predictions for 2012.” I was right in all the trends, because economic fundamentals drive the trends, but I was wrong in not seeing how denial of economic reality could maintain itself longer than I thought, slowing the speed and […]
The Eurozone crisis calmed a little now that the European summit has agreed on a plan, but for how many days, and what about Greece? The agreement reached in Brussels raised stock markets around the world but only because the deal exceeded expectations, and that’s only because expecations were already priced into the market and […]
The euro crisis dominated economic news and set the stage for the summer I have been anticipating. Stocks fell; unemployment climbed; sales dragged; manufacturing sluffed off; consumer spending receded. Interest on the U.S. debt also ticked upward when the annual deficit soared over the trillion-dollar barrier for the fourth straight year. And that was just one week! […]
At the beginning of last week a big financial advisor proclaimed that the markets’ little downturn meant nothing. The market would go right back up. He was certain that Europe’s problems that week would quickly be yesterday’s worries. He gets paid too much to be that certain about that much and be that wrong. I […]
The news of the week centered on Europe where no one knows how to clean up the Greece stain that smears the euro image. Greece ironically elected Nazis to fight German austerity last week. France joined in the fight with a hard left-wing punch to Sarkozy, knocking him flat on his French derriere and replacing him with […]
The first and most notable thing I did while working on this website last week was laugh at the optimistic headlines I was posting. MSNBC reported, “New claims for unemployment benefits tumbled more than expected in the latest week, raising hopes that the job market remains on the mend.” NPR reported the same story this way: […]
Are My 2012 Economic Predictions for the Great Recession in Recess … or are they just about to mature?
I started the following update on my predictions a few weeks ago, but didn’t have time to finish it. It is interesting now to see how the update is already being fulfilled in the news this week. I finished it today, realizing I’d better get it posted before everything it says looks like hindsight.
Last week was a slow news week when it comes to the economy. Nothing continued to happen just as nothing has happened for months with respect to any resolution on the euro crisis. Businesses turned in mixed results for the year, but mildly better in some quarters than expected. The Iranium Reaction continued to simmer. […]