The Great Recession Blog

As I noted in an earlier Patron Post we are entering the first period since I began writing this blog years ago when I am actually concerned about inflation blowing up. In my last article about all the variables creating insanity in the housing market, I noted that inflation (or expectation of it) has started […]

Want to see a crystal-clear picture of who has been helped the most by decades of trickle-down economics, who has gone nowhere and who has actually gone slightly downhill? Well, here you go:

It’s time for my semi-regular roundup of where the economy has gone since the last roundup, and … It’s a long line of devilish details

It wasn’t just COVID that got us down the road to ruin. Because many think we are in what looks like a post-apocalyptic world of rubble only because of COVID or because of Trump, I decided now would be a good time to summarize how predictably the Fed’s Great Recovery and Great Rewind got us […]

Spin it up, Boys! Spin it up high! The Labor Department should go into the money-laundering business because they own the fastest-spinning, number-washing machine out there. Early this week, Trump promised really big numbers would be seen in Friday’s jobs report. Since presidents do not usually get the numbers until just before they are released […]

The Fed admits its policies are losing potency, and its efforts now require continual government support as massive as the support provided by the Fed. I maintain that Fed success at propping up stocks now also requires continued belief in a fantasy narrative about a V-shaped economic recovery from the Coronacrisisi. We saw all of […]

I’ve missed a few predictions along the way, but usually only in part. When I missed, it was because I took the bad too far. The bad has almost always happened exactly when I said it would but hasn’t always been as bad as I said it would be. Now, it has all arrived and […]

The last few months reveal how dramatic failure of the Fed looks now that it has hit the wall of diminishing returns. I’ve warned for years that the next recession would look just like what we are now seeing. I’ll show below why this graph shows in stark numeric terms just how bad it is.

Bill Gates, a plague and central banks have converged like the perfect storm to propel the US toward becoming a cashless society and toward using digital ID’s for all personal financial transactions. The coronavirus bound these forces together, compounded them with fear to overcome inertia, and is accelerating society down the digital-currency highway.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. April closed as the best month for the US stock market since the V-shaped recovery that followed the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987. April also delivered the deepest, broadest economic collapse of any month in history.

U.S. first-quarter GDP plunged profoundly negative, but real GDP would have crashed even harder if not for bogus BEA data revisions. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. economy contracted 4.8% annually in the March quarter. Stocks soared on the news for two apparent reasons. First, many media outlets immediately reported the number as +4.8% […]

FedMed proved dead awhile ago with the whole Bulls team looking dead on the field, until Team Trump, the owner’s club, joined Coach Powell. Then Powell’s coaching team upped its game; and, finally, the Wall Street Bulls revived. “Big deal!” the Bears now yell. “Let’s get back to playing ball!”