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Uncategorized Archive

I spend much time criticizing the outlandish economic foolishness I see throughout the global economy and especially in the US economy (because the US economy is the one I am familiar with as a direct participant). Those who criticize need to be able to offer solutions. I have real, sustainable economic recovery ideas, but I […]

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The Relentless Road to Recession

Posted October 5, 2019 By David Haggith

“Show me the data,” demand those who cannot see a recession forming all around them and who keep parroting what they are told about the economy being strong because it is what they want to believe; yet, the data look like an endless march through a long summer down the road to recession.

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The Great Recession never ended. I say that because the deep economic flaws that caused it were never corrected. All recovery efforts since merely clouded our eyes to the problems growing larger around us, even making them worse, and now we are going back into the belly of the Great Recession.

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By John Phelan (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Conspiracy theories are like crime novels. You can create an infinite number of them, and all they require is a plausible plot built from real facts with enough twists to keep them interesting. That’s why I don’t spend my time trying to discern if any of them are true — though some may be — […]

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Sailing Through a Global Storm Without Enough Hot Air

Posted September 25, 2019 By David Haggith
By Marcosleal (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

As noted in my last article, “Fed Loses Control of its Benchmark Interest,” bank liquidity strains are written all over this month’s troubles. Some may find that hard to believe because there is so much hot air (fiat money) still floating the system from a historical standpoint. There is a sound fundamental reason, however, that […]

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cashless society cover of The Economist

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

           
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Well, that didn’t take long! Four days ago, I stated the following in an article titled “Why are Bonds Going for Broke?“: Central banks are losing control, and are admitting they don’t even understand what is happening.

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BOND PRIMER: How the Fed’s Machinery Works

Posted September 21, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

[This article attempts to provide an understanding of how the Fed governs interest rates (particularly via repos). If you understand it already, skip it; if you don’t, you may need it to understand the next article.] The Federal Reserve’s primary Machinery — the overnight interest rates between banks — broke down this past week. That […]

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Why are Bonds Going for Broke?

Posted September 15, 2019 By David Haggith

One argument for last week’s extraordinary plunge in bond prices, which I explored as something that might happen this time of year in one of my earlier Premium Posts, was that bond prices could get crushed by the supersized US treasury auctions planned for September and October as the government makes up for its inability […]

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Central Bankers Now Plotting Government Subversion?

Posted September 11, 2019 By David Haggith
Federalreserve [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Two weeks ago a former Federal Reserve board member and bank president, William Dudley, wrote an editorial that encouraged the Fed use its powers to defeat Donald Trump’s second bid for the US presidency. I don’t recall choosing presidents as being listed in the Fed’s two mandates — controlling inflation while maximizing employment. For an […]

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Oh God, and I Don’t Mean Trump; I mean GOD help us!

Posted August 23, 2019 By David Haggith
Trump tax plan trumps the middle class

It’s out of control. And I’m not even talking about the stock market, which fell off a cliff. I’m talking about the president who has deified himself. I hesitate to write strongly against Trump because I understand why many readers here voted for him, but today is a day that shall live in insanity!

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How’s That Recession Coming, Dave?

Posted August 22, 2019 By David Haggith

Pretty good if you ask me. Most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly in the direction of recession, and now the Cass Freight Index is saying a US recession may start in the 3rd quarter, fitting up nicely to my prediction that we would be entering recession this summer.

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GDP Ain’t What it Used to Be!

Posted August 20, 2019 By David Haggith

Let me help remove the rose-colored glasses for anyone who still thinks GDP this year is good.  First, GDP growth in the first quarter was not “great” as I’ve heard some claiming. It was, by US historical standards, a little lower than mediocre. Second, the biggest tax cuts in history only got us down to […]

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Bubble Bubba Isn’t Doing Fine Anymore

Posted August 14, 2019 By David Haggith

Let’s take a look at how the average consumer is doing. I’ll call this typical consumer “Bubba” because I just read an article that claimed “Bubba’s doing better today than at any time since before the Korean War.” It disgusted me because I found it to be such a disingenuous set of lies wrapped in […]

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