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The bears that are gathering will soon enough be picking flesh off the sun-bleached bones of this market. Even the Fed Chair, who usually does all he can can to avoid dismal pictures and to sound optimistic, is finally talking downcast about the US economy.

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By Lucian.amarii (Jup) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

Stock market investors, hungry for more pork, are demanding Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, land on their table on a silver platter with an apple in his mouth at this week’s congressional testimony. Will he deliver? Powell has a thin red line to talk, or this overFed market, which he and is cronies have nurtured, dies […]

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Right after Trump’s inauguration, I ran an article about how incredibly fake the news coverage was about his inauguration. (Those reading my site know I’m not a big Trump fan, but credit where credit is due and calling fake where calling fake is due.) The media was nothing short of spectacularly fake in the news […]

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Ten Big Steps down the Road to Recession

Posted July 5, 2019 By David Haggith
Carmageddon keeps on rolling

First, a decline in manufacturing, and then a slump in service industries, now a broad-spectrum inversion of the yield curve hitting its most critical metric this week, unemployment finally starting to rise again, a one-year relentless housing decline across most of the nation and the world, carmageddon pressing car dealers to offer big incentives once […]

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Wars and Rumors of Wars Title Photo - US Navy Jets against background of storm clouds

If you’re a Trump supporter, you’re going to hate this article and love it; likewise, if you are a Trump hater. I am going to lay out evidence that Trump is either the biggest moron of a president the US has ever had but also my own 4-D chess explanation that would make him cunning […]

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Cleaning up after the stock market crash.

That didn’t take long. On Saturday, well before the US stock market opened post-China-trade-talks, I wrote: The next step for the market would likely be that the remaining stock indices that have not pushed past their own previous peaks would now punch through. By that … I meant those indices like the Dow that were […]

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Beware the Lies you Read. Beware the Market Mania.

Posted July 1, 2019 By David Haggith

I want to comment on an article featured prominently all weekend on Zero Hedge because it is packed full of so many lies or distortions that I don’t know what it was even doing there. As you know, I read Zero Hedge a lot and appreciate economic perspectives they give, so I’ll give them the […]

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Best-Case Scenario Has a Worst-Case Twist

Posted June 29, 2019 By David Haggith
Gathering around the stock ticker during the 1929 stock market crash.

So, I did say my “worst-case scenario” did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my “best-case scenario” and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July?

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US military photo to go with "wars and rumors of wars"

President Trump stated on Wednesday that a war with Iran will be fast and easy. Let’s hope that means faster and easier than the trade war with China has turned out to be, now a year long and getting worse.

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We’re O.K. They’ve Got This

Posted June 27, 2019 By David Haggith

All is well in the wonderful Land of Oz. Munchkin had that same dopy-faced, thumbs-up look when he was drifting on his plastic bubble bed in a languid pool back in December somewhere in the Carribbean after assuring the world via Treasurer’s tweet that he had called all the major US banks to make sure they […]

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Market Mania Bets the Cash Registers Go Xi Ching!

Posted June 24, 2019 By David Haggith
Celebrate because the Epocalypse is here!

The S&P 500 is up 18% and powering toward its biggest first half since 1997. For bulls, things are great. Will they get any better? To a handful of cross-asset strategists who turned skeptical on stocks before this week’s manic sessions, that’s becoming the most pressing question. Increasingly, their answer is: not likely. However spectacular the real-time […]

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Is the Fed Dead?

Posted June 17, 2019 By David Haggith
Central banks are cause of inverted yield curve recessions

The US deficit this year is already over three-quarters of a trillion dollars, putting the first eight months of the fiscal year almost equal with the entire past fiscal year. It is also $200 billion above the previous record for this portion of the year, and this May’s deficit alone was 40% higher than last […]

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Perfect storm for 2019 recession

“The perfect storm” has become a cliché, but the current setup for a 2019 recession has become so text-book perfect in alignment of the three most critical recessionary forces that I have to use it. Let me start by noting that a stock market that rallies because the news is bad — as happened a little over […]

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Frothy Bubbles Make Me Whine

Posted June 12, 2019 By David Haggith
By fernost (Self-photographed) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

These are not the tiny champagne bubbles Don Ho used to sing about, but those greenish-gray floats of foam that pile up against harbor docks where the churn of the waves meets the oil spittle of boat motors. They are the economic froth that has piled up around us and is now beginning to fizzle. […]

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